Every number tells a story in this racket.
Oddsmakers are constantly quantifying everything in the sports betting space with numbers. Team A is five points better than Team B. Team X and Team Y are equal on a neutral field. Player Z is 40-to-1 to win the American League MVP.
One look at the baseball betting boards tells you everything you need to know about how the guys behind the counter view the Boston Red Sox.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Sox listed fourth out of five teams in their American League East betting market. You can currently find them at 20-to-1 to take the division crown. That implies less than a 5 percent chance of probability.
Odds to win AL East
New York Yankees -200
Tampa Bay Rays +350
Toronto Blue Jays +350
Boston Red Sox +2000
Baltimore Orioles +5200
“Boston’s rotation has a lot to prove,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “(Chris) Sale isn’t back until June or so and there are some big question marks around the back end starters. You’re asking a lot out of guys like Garrett Richards and Martin Perez. Boston will hit the ball and should score plenty of runs, but they have to prove they can keep other teams off the scoreboard.”
The Yankees are a pretty sizable AL East favorite at -200, meaning you have to risk $200 to win $100 and collect $300.
“Their offense is absolutely loaded,” the bookmaker added. “Gleyber Torres could hit sixth for them and he’s one of the favorites to win the AL MVP. That’s how deep that lineup is. If they stay healthy, they’re the best team in the division and the entire American League.”
Torres is as low as +700 to win the MVP out in Vegas. The Westgate SuperBook has Mike Trout as the perennial odds-on favorite at +175, then Torres and Aaron Judge (+700), followed by Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman (+1200). The SuperBook has J.D. Martinez at +4000, Rafael Devers at +6000 and Xander Bogaerts at +8000.
Interestingly enough, the Red Sox have almost identical odds to win the division and the pennant. DraftKings has Boston at 20-to-1 to win the AL East and 23-to-1 to win the American League. That’s not a typo, either. It’s a realization that they’re likely playing in the best division in baseball.
“They’re better built for the playoffs,” the bookmaker explained. “I don’t think they’ve got the ammo over 162 games. But assuming Sale is healthy for the playoffs and he starts two times a series, that’s a game-changer. We’ve seen the right team get hot at the right time in baseball quite a bit over the years.”