Super Bowl LV Odds: Taking Over/Under On Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski Props
Surprisingly, we're liking Gronk's numbers a lot more than Brady's
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are gearing up to take the NFL’s biggest stage yet again.
Brady, Gronkowski and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
With an abundance of talent on both sidelines, it’s sure to be an entertaining game for football fans, and one many bettors will look to make a profit on.
But as NESN’s own Sam Panayotovich explained Wednesday, it’s not only about picking a side or predicting the score. There’s much more to it than that with an abundance of prop bets, which allow fans to dive into specific players and predict their statistics, ultimately making a wager on their favorite stars.
And with that said, let’s look at a handful of props centering around both Brady and Gronkowski, who, as New England fans know, each spent the early part of their successful careers with the Patriots. First, we’ll start with the 43-year-old quarterback, with all props via DraftKings SportsBook.
Passing yards: UNDER 295.5
This, like so many other quarterback props, is determined based on how the game is going. If the Chiefs get up big, Brady could throw for 400 yards against prevent defenses. If the game is tight, or the Buccaneers force a few turnovers, they could put the game on their backfield. But for reference, in 44 career playoff games, Brady would be 18-26 against this specific 295.5 passing-yard prop, including 1-2 this postseason.
Touchdown passes: OVER 1.5 (-230)
Only three times this season Brady has thrown for two touchdowns or less. It’s not as great of odds as you have to bet $230 to win $100 here, but we’re much more comfortable with lucky No. 2.
Interceptions: UNDER 0.5
Brady threw three interceptions in the NFC Championship. He threw two against the Chiefs earlier this season. We don’t see him not correcting that.
Pass attempts: UNDER 39.5
Again, if Mahomes and the Chiefs take a 10- or even 14-point lead, we could see this going the other way in a hurry. But if it’s a tight game into the fourth quarter, it could mean Tampa’s defense is going to work, and thus a running game could complement it. Of note, Brady has 39 or fewer pass attempts in 23 playoff games, including each of the last two.
Completions: UNDER 24.5
This correlates with the attempts, obviously. Brady has completed 60 passes in three postseason games this season. He hasn’t eclipsed 24 completions yet during the 2020 playoffs. Regarding this season, only two times has Brady thrown fewer than 39.5 attempts and completed more than 24.5 passes.
First completion: UNDER 8.5 yards
Doesn’t it just feel like a short pass –maybe even to Gronkowski — will be how Brady gets going?
And now we are moving on to Gronkowski, who, admittedly, has a lot fewer prop options than the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback. But we still found a few we like.
Receiving yards: OVER 29.5 yards
Oddsmakers aren’t stupid, you know. Gronkowski eclipsed 29.5 yards eight times this year but finished with an exact 29-yard threshold in four games. Gronkowski hasn’t done so yet this postseason, but in games with three or more receptions, he’s eclipsed 29.5 yards seven times.
Receptions: OVER 2.5
That brings us to our next one, which like Brady’s, goes hand-in-hand. It just feels like Chiefs defensive coordinator Stephen Spagnuolo will do everything he can to shut down receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And essentially, that would open up Brady going back to his trusted target on some, say, key third downs. It’s also fair to note Gronkowski went off for six catches and a season-high 106 yards against the Chiefs during a Week 12 loss.
First-quarter receiving yards: OVER 7.5
Remember that Brady-short-pass-to-Gronkowski idea? Yeah, we could see one or two on the first few drives.
