MLB Odds: Season Win Totals Tell You How Sportsbooks View AL East
Bookmakers have the Sox win total at 79.5
The positioning of regular season win totals is a fascinating element of the Major League Baseball odds world.
Sportsbooks post a number for every team that you can bet “Over” or “Under” and every number tells a story. It’s also anybody’s guess as to how much weight you can truly put into a COVID-19 shortened 60-game sample size from last season.
According to the oddsmakers, the pecking order is clear in the American League East for 2021. Here are the season win totals for all five teams from highest to lowest via FanDuel Sportsbook:
New York Yankees: 95.5
Tampa Bay Rays: 86
Toronto Blue Jays: 86
Boston Red Sox: 79.5
Baltimore Orioles: 63.5
For this piece, I decided to tag in my buddy Dave Sharapan, who made and moved numbers like these for years in Curaçao and Las Vegas. Sharapan has this innate ability to analyze a number, explain its significance and offer up his two cents.
Red Sox — 79.5
Every bone in my body says that “Over” is the move. That’s an extremely disrespectful number for a baseball team that has plenty of talent and lots to prove.
The Sox limped through 2020 without a single start from Chris Sale or Eduardo Rodriguez. By summer, you’re looking at a potential rotation of Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Garrett Richards and Martin Perez. Zack Godley and Chris Mazza ain’t walking through that door.
Boston’s offense is going to score runs and manager Alex Cora is clearly an upgrade over Ron Roenicke in the dugout.
This number screams “buy low” on a team that really underachieved last year. The Yankees’ total is inflated and I’m not as high on the Jays and Rays as everybody else.
“You make a perfect case for taking the Red Sox ‘Over,'” Sharapan told NESN. “Their win total hasn’t been this low in almost two decades. Nobody knows what to do with this number. Would you bet that the Red Sox are going to only be .500? It’s hard to take it in. It requires a deeper look at the whole thing.
“Obviously, the pitching staff is the question. If you don’t have pitching, you can’t win. Not just an ace or a 1-2 punch at the top, but you need those role guys to take care of business in the later innings.
“I’m still not sure what the Red Sox have in the bullpen. I think 79 is a fair number because we have to see what they’re made of. This decision will probably hang in the balance until the final week of the season. It’ll be close. The ceiling isn’t that high and the floor isn’t that low.”
Yankees — 95.5
“The Yankees number not only reflects them being the best team but also being the only choice to bet to win the division,” Sharapan opined.
“Their season win number has to be inflated because nobody bets the Yankees ‘Under.’ You put the number up high to start so you can write some ?Under? money in February. You gotta get that ‘Under’ money before people start coming to town for March Madness. Those people are all betting the ‘Over.’ The public hasn?t bet ‘Under’ on the Yankees win total since Don Mattingly was on the team.
“That’s the way we did it. We set the number to get the ‘Under’ money with the Yankees. If you open it 90.5, you know you?re going to get one-way write on the ‘Over.’ So the number has to be inflated. If the sharp money bets you ‘Over’ out of the gate, you?re not going to write any ‘Under’ money through Opening Day. And then you’re in trouble.”
Rays — 86
“People have been shorting the Rays for years,” Sharapan said. “All the Rays keep doing is changing faces and bringing in guys that you don?t even know. Half the guys in the dugout don’t know who they are. And they win. You can sense the respect from the oddsmakers in this total. They clearly wanted to write that ‘Under’ money.”
(Tampa Bay’s total opened 88 or 88.5 in Vegas).
“I like the Rays and I’m beyond impressed what they?re able to do year after year. They’re not going to make a trade for a big star. They won’t make a big splash signing in free agency. They maximize what they have.”
Blue Jays — 86
“The Blue Jays are the White Sox of this year,” Sharapan cracked. “Everybody is on them. They have the same odds or lower to win the division as the Rays, which is shocking. The Rays were in the World Series last year! Toronto is the flavor of the month right now. Great lineup for sure. They’re going to score some runs and be in some fun, high-scoring games. But I have no idea what to expect from the pitching staff. I don’t think the Jays make the playoffs.”
Orioles — 63.5
“You never feel comfortable with a total that low,” Sharapan admitted. “It’s the opposite of the Yankee number. You gotta make it where they’re gonna bet ‘Over’ with you. It starts with the boys in the book wondering if the team can lose 100 games. When you see a number in the low 60s, there’s obviously a belief that it’s very, very possible.
“It?s a situation where you hope you draw some even action on both sides of the number. It?s harder to book it than it is to make it. You don?t want to be rooting for the ‘Over’ behind the counter though. Let the sharps and the bag guys bet the O’s ‘Over.’
“That?s a bad baseball team. Tim Wakefield would probably still be a small favorite against the Orioles at Fenway.”
