The Boston Bruins haven’t been this big of a betting favorite all season.
Bookmakers are so confident in the B’s beating the Buffalo Sabres Thursday night at TD Garden that they made them a -400 home favorite. That implies an 80 percent chance of probability.
Boston has been a massive favorite the last four times it has faced Buffalo, but -400 is entirely new territory. The Bruins closed at -315, -310, -295 and -308 in the aforementioned meetings.
Let’s start by stating the obvious: Don’t lay -400 in a random regular-season hockey game. I know, I know. The Sabres are atrocious and they’re probably going to lose. But the betting juice isn’t worth the squeeze. If you lose one $100 bet at -400, you have to win four just to break even. Sheesh.
The goal total is the only way for me to look in this one. The betting market opened 5.5o-15, but the “Under” has flipped to a slight favorite at 5.5u-15. There are some 5.5 flats readily available.
I just don’t like Buffalo to light many lamps, especially after its anomalous outburst in the last meeting. The Sabres somehow scored six goals against Boston despite only scoring six in the first five head-to-head battles. You would imagine the B’s will do everything in their power to avoid lightning striking twice.
The Bruins could easily fly over this total by themselves, but this game has 3-1 written all over it. Count me in on the “Under” 5.5.
Meanwhile, I spoke to Las Vegas bookmaker Duane Colucci about potential first-round series prices. Colucci said Boston would be a very small underdog against either Washington or Pittsburgh. Realistically, the split could be around -130/+110. That’s big respect for the B’s.
For comparative purposes, Carolina would be -300 or higher in its first-round series.
BUF/BOS Under 5.5 (-110)
RECORD: (31-25, +4.3)
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