Jordan Spieth was not a popular pick to win The Masters four weeks ago, but the perception has transformed quite a bit heading into Thursday’s opening round at Augusta National.
Over that span, Spieth tied for fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, finished ninth at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, then won the Valero Texas Open this past Sunday.
All of those factors have caused Spieth to rise up the betting boards.
The 2015 Masters champion was as high as 60-to-1 to win this year’s edition back on March 1, but a current odds check around the country shows you an 8-to-1, some 10-to-1s and a couple 12-to-1s. That $100 bet that won you $6,000 a month ago only wins you between $800 and $1,200 right now.
“And they’re still betting him,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “His betting value is long gone, but that hasn’t stopped our players from firing. People watched him win a tournament over the weekend and they think he turned a corner. We’ll see.”
Spieth’s rapid rise has removed most of his value in head-to-head matchups. Circa Sports has Spieth (-132) against Patrick Reed (+112). The Westgate SuperBook has Spieth (-120) against Rory McIlroy (+100). And DraftKings has Spieth (-110) against Jon Rahm (-110).
“Reed is a guy that gets no love from the public,” golf handicapper James Mazzola told NESN’s Chicken Dinner Podcast. “He doesn’t get bet that much. I will bet Reed in that matchup. There are too many bets like that where the other side [has value]. Rory McIlory is a pick ’em against Spieth. Patrick Cantlay is a pick ’em. At some point, it just goes a little too far.”
Spieth is being priced like a perennial contender instead of a golfer who has finished 46th, 21st, 3rd and 11th in his last four trips to Augusta. Professional bettors are staying far, far away as golf’s best tournament draws closer.
“It’s a lot different battling Charley Hoffman and Matt Wallace instead of Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson,” Mazzola cracked. “It’s a whole different world. There’s probably some money to be made by using that wave of momentum against Spieth and fading him.”
Spieth could very well contend for another green jacket, but the best time to bet him was several weeks ago. Buying a futures ticket today would be like buying a stock at $100 when it was readily available at $30 last month. You missed the move.
It’s paramount to make the right bet at the right price and that time is long gone.
