It’s take two for the Boston Red Sox against the Texas Rangers on Friday night in Arlington.
Right hander Nathan Eovaldi (3-2, 3.77 ERA) gets the ball for Boston and he’ll face the most free-swinging offense in Major League Baseball. No team strikes out more than the Rangers (275). There isn’t a pitch they won’t swing at — that’s how they’re constructed and that’s how they roll.
So how can we capitalize on this?
Multiple American sportsbooks offer strikeout markets for starting pitchers. Eovaldi’s number is 6.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it pays to shop around. The “Over” is +105 at DraftKings and +115 at FanDuel. So you get an extra ten cents on the dollar if you pursue the right price.
I usually lean “Over” when it comes to Eovaldi’s K prop, but I’m really feeling this one. The Rangers are on pace to strike out over 1,700 times this season and they’ve struck out 12, 6, 9, 12, and 12 times in their last five games. Talk about a tremendous supplementary statistic.
As long as Eovaldi doesn’t forget his fastball command in the hotel room, he’s going to have every opportunity to punch out eight or nine hitters.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still the most profitable team in the American League East. A $100 bettor would be up $500 if they bet on the Sox every single game. And since it’s always fun to drag the New York Yankees, a $100 bettor would be down $1,040 for tailing them every time out.
Boston also is 13-13 to the run total this year. That’s 13 “Overs” and 13 “Unders.” The current swing is four straight to the “Under” as the Sox offense has cooled off a bit. I’m sure manager Alex Cora is enamored by his team still winning three of those four games despite only scoring nine runs.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts +115
RECORD: (36-26, +8.2)
Predict the Game returns to NESN on Friday night. Our first question goes live at 7:30 p.m. ET on “Red Sox GameDay Live” and throughout the night, you’ll see predictive baseball questions to answer on our broadcast. The participant who scores the most points during the Sox-Rangers game will win an autographed Tim Wakefield jersey.
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