College football regular season win totals are here.
Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook were first to market and they posted win totals for 129 teams. Alabama and Clemson have the highest totals at 11.5, followed closely by Ohio State and Oklahoma at 11.
Bowling Green, UMass and UNLV are all lined at 1.5, while Kansas sits at 1.
Here are four teams I’m circling on the college football betting sheet in late May:
Clemson “Under” 11.5 wins -125
I don’t like the Tigers to run the table in their first season without Trevor Lawrence. Some analysts believe quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei can be just as good, but I’m not putting the cart before the horse. Clemson starts off its season with a very losable neutral-site game against Georgia and they play at N.C. State, Louisville and South Carolina. The Tigers recruit well enough to replenish most of what they lost in the NFL draft, but there are too many land mines to feel confident in a perfect regular season.
Oregon “Over” 9 wins -113
This is my favorite win total on the board. I love me some Ducks this year. It all starts with the offensive line in Eugene and head coach Mario Cristobal returns four starters in the trenches. The backfield is loaded, too, with CJ Verdell and Travis Dye ready to run through big gaps all season. I expect veteran Anthony Brown to start at quarterback and as long as he takes care of the football, Oregon should win 10 games. They’ll likely slip up at Ohio State and November’s tilt at Utah will be a war, but the cream will rise for Cristobal. The Ducks are way too talented to lose four games.
Toledo “Over” 8 wins +105
I really like Jason Candle to make a run in the MAC. The Rockets were rock solid on defense last season, allowing only 24 points per game and posting the third-best third-down conversation rate in the entire country. Ten of Toledo’s 11 starters on defense will be upperclassmen and I get the sense that there’s unfinished business around the football program after losing two games in 2020 by six total points. I’ve got the Rockets favored in all but two of 12 games — at Notre Dame and at Ball State.
UMass “Under” 1.5 wins +120
You probably think I’m crazy with one. “They’ll win at least two!” you’re telling yourself. Be careful — this could be an absolute nightmare season for the Minutemen. They open up the campaign at Pittsburgh, then at home vs. Boston College. That’s a quick 0-2 start. Then the schedule goes Eastern Michigan, at Coastal Carolina and back home for Toledo and UConn. An 0-6 start is very likely. After the off week, UMass will take whatever spirit it has left on the road to Florida State and Liberty. At that point, they’re possibly 0-8 with nothing to play for. Don’t count out a 1-11 season in Amherst.