Sportsbooks are well aware of Xander Bogaerts’ hitting prowess this season.
Let’s dive into Friday night’s battle between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles and explain how bookmakers have been moving their meters on Bogaerts.
Betting shops like DraftKings and FanDuel allow you to bet on how many hits a player will have in a given game. Most players’ hit props are Over/Under 0.5 and the juice shifts by the player. If you bet “Over” 0.5 hits, you’re a winner if the player gets a hit.
Alex Verdugo’s line for Friday is 0.5 hits o-250 / u+180 at DraftKings. That means you have to lay $250 to win $100 on the “Over,” while $100 would make you $180 on the “Under.” A -250 favorite implies 71 percent probability, so the book believes it’s likely Verdugo gets a hit, but you pay a steep price if he doesn’t.
Meanwhile, Bogaerts is at a whole other level. He is the only player in Friday’s game with a prop of 1.5 hits. Alex Verdugo, Christian Vazquez, Kiké Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and six Oriole players are lined at O/U 0.5 hits with varying betting juice each way.
Bogaerts’ line is 1.5 hits o+180 / u-250 — the books have Bogaerts a full hit higher than everybody else in the game. And you’re rewarded extra ($100 wins $180) if he racks up multiple hits. A quick fact check shows Bogaerts already has four multi-hit games this month and 11 in 30 starts this season.
You can still find Bogaerts around 50-1 to win the American League MVP.
As for Friday’s game, the betting market has actually moved toward the O’s. Eduardo Rodriguez (4-0, 4.18) opened as a -165 favorite against Matt Harvey (3-1, 4.07), but some shops are as low as -145. Respected money has shown on Baltimore, which correlatively makes Boston cheaper to bet.
I don’t mind laying -145 in this spot with Rodriguez, who has a 2.84 ERA in 10 career starts at Camden Yards. Sure, Harvey has been profitable this season (+3.85 units), but his control is always up for grabs and his fastball ain’t what it used to be. The Sox pinged him around for seven hits and four runs last month in a 7-3 win.
Count me in on the Red Sox moneyline and Bogaerts for two hits.
Red Sox -145
Bogaerts O1.5 hits +180
RECORD: (36-27, +7.2)
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