The Bruins should know they can still win their Stanley Cup playoff second-round series vs. the Islanders. Boston has done it before.
Not often. But it has happened.
The Black and Gold face the unenviable task of having to extend their season with a win in the jungle that is Nassau Coliseum on Wednesday night in a do-or-die Game 6. Boston’s hope is it can win Game 6 and extend the series back to the Hub for a Game 7 on Friday night.
Of course, it won’t be easy. The Islanders have all the momentum in the world right now after a stifling Game 4 win on the Island and then stealing Game 5 from the B’s at TD Garden. The Coliseum is going to be an absolute madhouse with the Isles having a chance to advance to face the Tampa Bay Lightning. And the Bruins go in with a bevy of injuries at key positions, particularly on the blue line and perhaps even in net with Tuukka Rask.
Unsurprisingly, the historical trends don’t look good for Boston, either. Teams with a 3-2 series lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 79 percent of the time, including a 4-1 showing this year. The Bruins have won just four of 25 series when they’ve trailed 3-2, and they’re 12-13 in Game 6 scenarios where they trail the series.
All of that being said: This is a situation in which the Bruins have had success before. In this “championship era” dating back to 2011, Boston has four times staved off elimination in Game 6 to force a winner-take-all showdown.
2011 Stanley Cup Final vs. Vancouver
Game 6 (at home): 5-2 win
2012 first round vs. Washington
Game 6 (on road): 4-3 overtime win
2019 first round vs. Toronto
Game 6 (on road): 4-2 win
2019 Stanley Cup Final vs. St. Louis
Game 6 (on road): 5-1 win
(If you’re a Bruins fan looking for even more reason for hope, the Bruins also faced a 3-1 series deficit in the second round of the 2017 playoffs vs. Ottawa and staved off elimination in Game 5 before bowing out in six.)
The most recent example, the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, shares multiple parallels. That Blues team was a heavy, plodding team that came into Boston and won a Game 5. Like the fifth game of Bruins-Islanders, that contest also featured controversy with referees missing a blatant trip on Tyler Bozak before the Blues scored the game-winner. A ticked-off Boston team took it out on the Blues in Game 6.
Now, claiming victory in these must-win situations hasn’t always guaranteed a series victory. Boston lost both the Washington series in 2012 and the Cup Final in 2019 after gutsy road wins that set up Game 7 on home ice. But all you can ask for is a chance, and the Bruins have been able to do that on a handful of occasions over the last 10 years.
On the other side, long-term history doesn’t bode well for the Bruins. The Islanders in series-clinching Game 6’s have an 11-2 all-time record and have never lost a close-out game at the Coliseum going 7-0. Without looking, though, a good chunk of that success probably came in the days of Mike Bossy and Denis Potvin when the Isles won four straight Cups, so that doesn’t tell us a ton about this series or these teams.
Islanders coach Barry Trotz, who suddenly has become one of the series’ focal points, has had mixed success in close-out games. He’s 12-9 in such games over the course of his impressive career, with a good chunk of those losses coming in 2015 when his Washington Capitals team blew a 3-1 series lead to the Rangers.
The sportsbooks aren’t completely out on the B’s yet, either. Boston is actually a -142 favorite to win Game 6 at FanDuel Sportsbook and are a relatively short (considering the circumstances) +180 to win the series.
Game 6 is set to start at 7:30 p.m. ET with pregame coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. on NESN+.
