NFL Week 1 Picks: Chiefs On Upset Alert Vs. Browns; Can Steelers Handle Bills?
The NFL is back, and it's a beautiful thing
Congratulations, everyone. We made it: Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season, and not a moment too soon.
Hopefully, a return to the gridiron this fall is accompanied by something resembling “normal” after a bizarre, tweaked-on-the-fly 2020 campaign.
As long as they’re playing the games, we’ll be making picks, and NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are back to make their weekly against-the-spread predictions.
If reading isn’t your thing, stop what you’re doing and go listen to “The Spread” podcast, where Mike and Ricky make their ATS picks for the week’s top games.
Here are their Week 1 picks, with all lines coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 9
Dallas Cowboys at (-8.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Loved the Bucs when it was down around a touchdown, but Dallas’ offense can keep the back door open, and I’m officially scared off by the number despite how good this matchup looks for Tampa Bay.
Ricky: Bucs. This number feels really high. And it’s entirely possible Tom Brady is still hungover from Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl boat parade. But Dak Prescott couldn’t face a more difficult matchup in his first game back, and serious questions remain about Dallas’ defense.
SUNDAY, SEPT. 12
(-7.5) San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Everyone expects the Niners to roll here, but if there’s one game for Dan Campbell to get the Lions all sorts of fired up, it has to be in this spot, at home in front of a raucous crowd. San Francisco’s lingering QB situation looms, too.
Ricky: Lions. Classic case of trying to zig when everyone else zags. The Niners are a popular preseason pick, whereas the Lions presumably will stink. Banking on a little Week 1 weirdness, with a sizable home ‘dog, before water eventually finds its level.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-6.5) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Pittsburgh’s revamped offensive line gives me skepticism, especially with two rookies starting, on the road against a solid defense in front of Bills fans who are ready to make Orchard Park rock again. Early struggles in that regard put the Steelers behind the number, and I don’t think they’re built to play catch-up, especially against a team like Buffalo.
Ricky: Steelers. The T.J. Watt situation adds an extra layer of uncertainty, but Pittsburgh’s defense should be good enough to keep the team in most games this season, including the opener against Buffalo. It’s also possible the Steelers find success offensively by relying on their bevvy of skill players in space against a Bills defense that struggled against the run and with tackling for much of 2020.
(-2.5) Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Indy’s tumultuous offseason is concerning, but the Colts have an advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Carson Wentz didn’t have a ton of time to prepare, but he’s familiar with Frank Reich, and they’ll take advantage of an uninspiring Seattle pass defense.
Ricky: Seahawks. This spread has been all over the place thanks to Wentz’s offseason injury. And honestly, I’d probably stay away from the game altogether. But, without that luxury, I’ll side with continuity, as I know what to expect from Seattle’s offense. Plus, the Seahawks’ defense, stout against the run, was much better down the stretch last season, ranking third in yards per game against, second in pass yards per attempt against and second in sacks after Week 10.
Los Angeles Chargers at (-1) Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. Ryan Fitzpatrick against the LA defense is scary, but it’s not as bad as taking the Chargers’ offensive line trying to fend off an elite Washington pass rush. Chargers tackle Bryan Bulaga is dealing with a nagging issue, and new center Corey Linsley didn’t play in the preseason, so there might be some growing pains on that revamped offensive front.
Ricky: Chargers. Justin Herbert will be tested right out of the gate, as Washington’s defense has the personnel to be one of the league’s best in 2021. But what better way to usher in a new era than to win a close game — the Chargers typically lose such — in Brandon Staley’s NFL head-coaching debut?
Arizona Cardinals at (-3) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. In researching this game, I found a story from Arizona wondering whether the Cardinals could withstand Tennessee’s toughness after what the author called a “Camp Pillow Fight” in the desert. Feels like it might be an issue having to go tackle a fresh Derrick Henry.
Ricky: Titans. The Cardinals were a fun team last season that showed enough to make you dream about the future. Then, you realize they share the NFC West with three legitimate playoff (and championship?) contenders — the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks — and might get punched in the mouth right at jump street.
(-3.5) Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. I’m skeptical about Minnesota’s offensive depth. Granted, Cincinnati struggled to stop the run last year, but they committed a lot of money to defense this offseason, and if the Vikings aren’t without a full arsenal, the Bengals should be able to key in on Dalvin Cook and at least try to limit the damage.
Ricky: Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has real upside with Joe Burrow at the helm, especially since the Bengals are making an effort to build a respective O-line. Minnesota, with some better injury luck this season, should be OK in the long run, but this has outright upset potential.
New York Jets at (-5.5) Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Brutal spot for the Jets to open the Robert Saleh era. The Panthers’ defense might be the NFL’s most underrated, and that could mean a long first day for Zach Wilson. Let’s also get in on the narratives, and say Sam Darnold balls out to show his former team it was them not him.
Ricky: Panthers. Wilson dazzled during the preseason, but there are going to be plenty of hiccups as the Jets create a new identity on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey will carve up New York’s defense, both on the ground and in the passing game.
(-3) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. “Nobody believes in us” vibes for Houston, who probably wins this game on the way to 1-16.
Ricky: Texans. Total gut feeling. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-3) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. I’m higher than most on Philly this season, and I’m not falling for the Falcons thing, at least not out of the gate. Jalen Hurts is a problem for an Atlanta defense on which the jury is very much out in Dean Pees’ first season.
Ricky: Eagles. The Falcons are the flashier team, with a more established quarterback in Matt Ryan, a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Calvin Ridley and an awe-inspiring rookie tight end in Kyle Pitts. But the Eagles, for all of their flaws, still have the horses to dominate the line of scrimmage.
Miami Dolphins at (-3) New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. There will be Mac Jones growing pains as early as this week, but how exactly does Miami slow down the New England pass rush? The Dolphins have tried to reshuffle the offensive line on the fly, but that got even more complicated with starting left tackle Austin Jackson going to the COVID list. A big Patriots debut for Matt Judon awaits.
Ricky: Patriots. New England’s defense is going to be excellent this season. And that starts this week with flustering Tua Tagovailoa, while his former Alabama teammate, Jones, is asked to do the bare minimum as the Patriots’ offense leans on a ground-and-pound approach.
Cleveland Browns at (-5.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Browns. There has been a lot of talk out of KC about the Chiefs’ improved offensive line, but three rookies making their debut against Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney feels important. I also think Kevin Stefanski will find ways for Cleveland to get its running game going and see whether the Kansas City run defense is still an issue.
Ricky: Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 10-0 SU as a starter in September, with 32 touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 124.4 QB rating. So, basically you’re talking about the best version of the best quarterback on the planet. Not great for a new-look Browns defense that’ll probably require some time to jell, particularly in the secondary.
(-3.5) Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville), 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Saints. The Packers’ offensive line is in flux and likely will remain that way at least until All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari returns. New Orleans can make that hurt, and I’m also not entirely sold the Packers will be able to stop Alvin Kamara, who went off for 197 total yards when these two met a year ago.
Ricky: Saints. New Orleans, equipped with an elite offensive line and a strong defensive front, has the potential to own the trenches on both sides of the ball. That should be enough to keep the game close, even if the Saints’ worst fears are realized when Jameis Winston throws a late pick.
(-3) Denver Broncos at New York Giants, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Giants. I’m gonna need a little time before I can be convinced to lay points on the road with Denver.
Ricky: Giants. The Broncos feel like too trendy of a preseason pick. Sure, their defense could be really good. But let’s not forget Von Miller is 32 years old and coming off a missed season due to injury. And offensively, Denver’s ceiling is capped by having the steady, but not-so-explosive Teddy Bridgewater under center.
Chicago Bears at (-7.5) Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Rams. That’s laying a decent amount of points with a new QB facing a tough defense, but you could literally say the same things regarding Andy Dalton going up against an even better Rams defense. This could get ugly.
Ricky: Bears. Wouldn’t it be perfect if Dalton pulled a rabbit out of his hat against the Rams, while all of Chicago shouts for Justin Fields, only to turn around and crater in subsequent weeks against inferior defenses?
MONDAY, SEPT. 13
(-4) Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Baltimore has been hilariously good in Week 1 over the last four seasons, which I believe speaks to their preparation. I’ll take the more talented, professional outfit here.
Ricky: Ravens. Is it just me, or does it seem like the Raiders are just sorta stuck in the middle?
