Patriots Have Fourth-Best Chance Of Winning Super Bowl, Analytics Say

The data likes New England's Super Bowl odds


November 29, 2021

New England Patriots, Super Bowl favorites?

Not quite, but they’re close.

After the Patriots dispatched the Tennessee Titans 36-13 on Sunday to earn their sixth consecutive win and improve to 8-4 on the season, FiveThirtyEight’s NFL playoff predictor model now gives them a 10% chance to win Super Bowl LVI.

Those might not sound like especially high odds, but they’re the fourth-best of any NFL team through 12 weeks. Per FiveThirtyEight, only the Green Bay Packers (17%), Arizona Cardinals (14%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) have a better chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. Trailing the Patriots are the Kansas City Chiefs at 9% and the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills at 8%.

It’s impossible to look at that collection of teams and not fantasize about a potential Patriots-Bucs Super Bowl — Tom Brady against his former team and coach on the game’s biggest stage — and the chances of that happening grow stronger by the week. Analytics site Football Outsiders last week listed New England versus Tampa Bay as its most likely Super Bowl matchup.

Brady’s bunch also took care of business Sunday, holding off the Indianapolis Colts 38-31 to move to 8-3 on the season.

FiveThirtyEight also gives New England a 91% chance of making the postseason, a 45% chance of winning its division and a 22% chance of landing the AFC’s first-round playoff bye. The Patriots currently lead the Bills by a half-game for first place in the AFC East and sit a half-game back of the Ravens for No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Patriots will face the Bills twice in the next four weeks, beginning next Monday night in Buffalo.

Thumbnail photo via David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports Images
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick
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