The Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals are another day closer to competing in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
The NFC champion Rams currently are a four-point favorite over the AFC champion Bengals, and the storylines have been rather extensive with everyone trying to predict where the biggest advantages could be rooted.
It prompted us to dissect advanced stats gathered by SportRadar, Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus and came up with three specific storylines where the said stats indicate an advantage, specifically for Los Angeles.
LA’s ability to get after a worrisome Bengals’ offensive line
We’ve harped on the battle in the trenches throughout much of the week, but the reality is that it very well could be the deciding factor in who is lifting the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.
The Rams, according to the advanced stats at SportRadar, averaged a sack on 7.4% of their defensive snaps during the regular season, which ranked fifth in the league. And while sacks frequently are caused by teams sending more rushers, that hasn’t always been the case for LA. The Rams ranked outside the top-10 in defensive blitz percentage during the regular season before blitzing a bit more (33.1% of defensive snaps) in the postseason. All-Pro Aaron Donald (12.5 sacks) and edge rushers Leonard Floyd (9.5) and Von Miller (5.0) have been able to bring enough pressure without needing help from safeties and cornerbacks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, for reference, far exceeded that number while sending five or more defenders on 42.6% of regular-season snaps. It proves how the Rams have been able to get pressure with their front four, which will be crucial against Joe Burrow given that it means another player is able to help in the passing game.
The Bengals, meanwhile, have a worrisome offensive line best depicted as Cincinnati allowed a league-worst 51 sacks in the regular season. When Burrow was pressured by opposing defenses, which SportRadar has as 24.9% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps, those groups converted the pressures to sacks 26% of the time, according to PFF. Burrow expressed this week how he’ll have to get the ball out quickly and into the hands of his teammates. After all, when opposing quarterbacks held onto the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, the Rams generated the second-best pressure rate and third-best sack rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats.
Double-edged sword when it comes to handling Matthew Stafford
If Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has watched any film entering Sunday’s game, he should know better than to heavily blitz Stafford — all he would have to do is ask the Arizona Cardinals after their wild-card loss or Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. But Stafford’s ability to carve up defenses when not under duress presents a bit of a double-edged sword for Cincinnati.
Stafford, who faced 137 blitzes during the 17-game regular season, finished the campaign with +89.1 pass expected points added (EPA) against the blitz. It is the best-ever EPA in the Next Gen Stats era. PFF had Stafford for 15 touchdowns compared to just one interception against the blitz, as well. His numbers eventually caused opponents to stop blitzing as much as the 17% blitz percentage the Rams faced was a league-low.
Fortunately for the Bengals, they won’t have to reinvent themselves just to avoid one of Stafford’s strengths. Cincinnati blitzed opposing quarterbacks less than 25 other teams during the regular season (21.2%) and that percentage dropped to 17.5% in the playoffs, according to SportRadar.
The difficult part is that the Bengals will have to find the perfect middle ground between not overly blitzing Stafford, but still making sure to bring pressure. Stafford, according to Next Gen Stats, has generated a +44.6 EPA when not facing pressure this postseason, which is second only to Matt Ryan’s 2016 playoff run. SportRadar had Stafford pressured on 16.3% of snaps during the regular season and 19.0% of the time in the postseason.
Cooper Kupp’s ability to move the chains
It’s well-documented that Kupp put together a historic season at the receiver position. He led the league in total yards (1,993) and touches (149) in 17 games. Kupp, who averaged 7.6 air yards per reception with 44% of his yards coming after the catch and a 6.7% broken tackle rate, could win Offensive Player of the Year. He’s hit the Over in his receiving prop 75% of the time this season.
But Kupp’s ability to move the chains, especially against a Bengals’ defense that allowed opponents to convert 41.6% of their third-down conversions, could be where he impacts the game most.
Kupp, who lines up in the slot 63.3% of the time, gained a first down on a league-leading 17.8% of his routes on third down, according to Next Gen Stats. He held a considerable advantage over Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen, who ranked second at 15.5%. Kupp recorded a first down on 61.4% of his total catches this season, according to SportRadar.
Additionally, Stafford, in regards to the previously-mentioned blitz, targeted Kupp 39% of time that opposing teams blitzed. It was the highest rate in the NFL with the wideout recording 43 catches, per Next Gen Stats.
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