Daniel Jeremiah is among the most highly-regarded and established NFL draft experts, which is why when he expresses a lack of clarity atop the draft board it’s a telling sign.
“Working on another mock draft,” Jeremiah tweeted Monday. “I can’t recall a year with so little clarity, starting with the first overall pick.”
It’s true. Unlike years past where there’s an established signal-caller expected to be drafted first overall — Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray to name a few — there’s no player at the most important position worthy of the top selection. In fact, Jeremiah has mock-drafted the first quarterback (Kenny Pickett) to be selected No. 18 overall by the New Orleans Saints.
That’s not to say there aren’t players worthy of the pick, but there’s no surefire top selection regardless of team needs — a player that stands out among the rest. Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal and Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson seem to be headlining the two-man race, but others like N.C. State offensive tackle Ickey Ekwonu and Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux are thought to be among the mix, too.
It’s fair to draw a direct line to how that type of uncertainty has made it difficult on both oddsmakers and bettors alike.
DraftKings Sportsbook has set Neal’s prices to be the No. 1 overall pick at +150. Hutchinson follows closely behind a 2-to-1 with Thibodeaux (+500) and a charging Ekwonu (+700) atop the betting board before a significant drop off to Malik Wilkins (+3500) and Charles Cross (+3500).
For reference, Lawrence was -5000 to be selected No. 1 at this time last year, according to Sports Betting Dime.
Jeremiah, in his latest mock draft published Tuesday, has the Jacksonville Jaguars going with Neal first overall. Fellow NFL Network colleagues Chad Reuter, Cynthia Frelund, Lance Zierlein and Bucky Brooks are in agreement as each has Neal the first player off the board.
Similarly, ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay has Neal being selected first as recently as last week while his colleague Mel Kiper Jr. had Hutchinson going to the Jaguars during his mid-January mock draft.
With so many analysts believing Neal will be selected first, doesn’t that establish some clarity? Well, maybe.
But Jeremiah actually ranked Hutchinson as his No. 1 draft prospect earlier this month. Neal ranked third on that list behind both Hutchinson and Ekwonu.
It goes to show Jeremiah’s point, which is also depicted by the betting prices, that there is no surefire lock to go No. 1 overall.
