Never underestimate an NFL head coach’s ability to overthink things.
The NFL on Tuesday updated its playoff overtime format, guaranteeing both teams one possession if a game is tied after regulation. If the two teams remain tied after each of their overtime drives, the game will become a sudden-death scenario. Regular-season overtimes will not change in 2022 but seemingly could down the road.
Shortly after news of the league’s decision broke, an anonymous head coach gave a prediction to NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero.
“One NFL head coach offered a prediction about the new modified overtime rule for postseason only,” Pelissero tweeted, “Many teams that get the ball first and score a touchdown will go for 2, rather than allowing the second team to do it and end the game.”
So, why would teams do this? Essentially, the goal would be to remain in control of the situation if a touchdown is scored on the opening possession. If a team converts the two-point conversion, they force the other team to try one as well; if they only convert an extra-point attempt, they open the door for the opponent to end the game on a 2-point try.
And, given the NFL 2-point conversion percentage annually operates between 40% and 55% (48.7% in 2021, per Sports Radar 360) teams would have a decent chance of achieving that desired goal.
But that doesn’t mean it would be a smart strategy to employ. In fact, it would be downright stupid.
The whole idea hinges on the assumption that teams would feel more comfortable with going for two than they would be with trusting their defense to prevent a field goal in a sudden-death situation. And, considering the increasing number of analytics-loving head coaches and decreasing quality of defense in the NFL, there might be merit to that belief. However, that’s less being two steps ahead than it is crossing a bridge that hasn’t been built.
During the 2021 regular season, 24% of all offensive drives resulted in touchdowns, excluding those that ended in kneel-downs. If you include only teams that qualified for the postseason, the number is 28.3%. Either way, it’s around 25%.
So, teams have a greater likelihood of missing the 2-point try than they do of allowing the opposition to score a touchdown. Yes, the NFL is looking more like a track meet by the year, but not every game will turn into the defensively hopeless shootout that the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs produced during the AFC divisional round. As the last four Super Bowls have shown, good defense still is a prerequisite for winning a championship.
If you have effectively zero confidence in your defense’s ability to hold a seven-point lead in overtime, you probably aren’t going to hoist a Lombardi Trophy anyway.
To get even nerdier, let’s (correctly) assume your chances of winning a game are lower than 50% if you line up for the 2-point try. On the other hand, if you kick the PAT, your chances of winning are no worse than roughly 50%, based on the aforementioned two-point conversion percentage.
Ultimately, though, you don’t need stats and metaphors to explain why teams would be foolish to make the coach’s prediction come true.
If both teams basically have a 50-50 chance of converting the 2-point attempt, then what real advantage is there to be had? Moreover, and most importantly, if you miss the two-point attempt, the opposition needs only to convert an extra-point attempt (93.4% success rate in 2021) to win the game.
With all that said, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising if someone such as Brandon Staley or Zac Taylor tries this in a playoff game next season. And maybe they’ll get lucky and come out of it looking great, with players praising them for being “aggressive” and “fearless,” or something.
But when it goes wrong, they’ll deserve every bit of criticism they get.
