Deebo Samuel playing football for the New England Patriots feels like a pipe dream for a multitude of reasons.
Samuel became the latest super-talented receiver to try and force his employer’s hand Wednesday, going public with a trade request from the San Francisco 49ers. If this offseason is any indication, he’ll ultimately end up in the same spot Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill find themselves: on new teams with new (massive) contracts.
It’s easy to see why the Patriots or literally any other NFL team would and should want Samuel. He might be the most valuable offensive asset in the entire league right now. Not only is he an elite, playmaking receiver, but he can carry the ball in the running game with production rivaling actual running backs.
But the Patriots would be wise to resist the temptation. Samuel simply costs too much in both acquisition cost and long-term financial investment. The Patriots aren’t swimming in salary cap space, and quite frankly, they have plenty of other areas for improvement. Using a sizable chunk of both draft caps and dollars to add Samuel would keep them from patching other unsightly holes on their roster.
Let’s start with the draft capital needed to make such a move. Because the Hill and Adams deals were so recent, we can use them as benchmarks.
DAVANTE ADAMS TRADE
Las Vegas acquires: Adams
Green Bay acquires: 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick
TYREEK HILL TRADE
Miami acquires: Hill
Kansas City acquires: 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2023 sixth-round pick
If San Francisco decides to trade the All-Pro wideout, which they’re technically under no obligation to do anyway, the price should start at a first- and second-round pick. That part feels kind of obvious. Not to mention, Samuel probably has the most left in the tank at this point.
What’s even more telling, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, is an early market for Samuel figures to include the likes of the Jets, Packers, Chiefs and Lions. Do you know what those teams all have in common? They all have two first-round picks in next week’s draft.
The Houston Texans were randomly mentioned as a possible landing spot, too. By the way, two teams Rapoport didn’t mention, the Saints and Eagles, are the sorts of clubs who should be in the market for Samuel, too. And guess what? Yep, you guessed it: All three of those clubs also have two first-round picks.
FIRST-ROUND PICKS IN 2022
Detroit Lions: Nos. 2, 32
Houston Texans: Nos. 3, 13
New York Jets: Nos. 4, 10
Philadelphia Eagles: Nos. 15, 18
New Orleans Saints: Nos. 16, 19
Green Bay Packers: Nos. 22, 28
Kansas City Chiefs: Nos. 29, 30
Then there’s the contract. Samuel, 26, has one more season left on his rookie deal. He carries a cap hit just below $5 million next season which makes him the NFL’s best bargain. But he sees the money being thrown around, and he wants to get paid — sounds like $25 million per season will get that job done. Maybe Bill Belichick has changed, but does he strike you as the type willing to tie up that much cap space in one receiver? He was reluctant to do as much for the greatest of all time at the most important position in sports when he had Tom Brady.
Don’t forget this, too: The Patriots have already made sizable financial contributions on offense. Taking advantage of the Mac Jones rookie deal, they were among the top teams in the NFL when it came to cap money allocated to wideouts and were No. 1 in the league in committed money to tight ends. Sure, that could change, but it would require a whole lot finagling.
And there’s one other lingering point that must be made. This is, by no means, meant to take anything away from Samuel. However, he has certainly benefited from playing in what some would call a revolutionary offensive system led by Kyle Shanahan, arguably the brightest offensive mind in the sport.
The Patriots? Well … they have an offense apparently run by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, the latter of which isn’t exactly a wide receiver whisperer.
Belichick has certainly struggled when it comes to drafting receivers, but everyoe who knows anything about the draft says this one is deep at receiver position. Belichick’s track record is unimpressive when it comes to drafting wideouts, but it probably makes more sense to throw a few darts next week than it does to completely mortgage the future for someone, even as good as Samuel.
The rest of the AFC has sped by the Patriots. Just how long that trend continues depends on how good New England can rebuild on the fly, and pushing the chips into the pot right now feels like a risky bet it can’t afford to make right now.
