The Boston Red Sox are one of the most difficult teams in Major League Baseball to forecast this season.
They’re coming off an excellent 2021 with plenty of reasons for optimism, but they also face questions and play in a stacked American League East, which will make for a difficult road to the MLB playoffs.
It feels like the Red Sox will be competitive in 2022, especially if several players take the next step. It’s just not a guarantee. And thus making Boston-based predictions isn’t for the faint of heart.
Well, guess what we’re here to do: Make predictions.
You only live once, right? So, let’s throw caution to the wind, stare into our crystal ball and ride with seven Red Sox predictions that absolutely, positively will come to fruition this season.
1. Alex Verdugo will be named an All-Star for the first time
We predicted last season that Verdugo would win the American League batting title. Bold, no doubt. And also wrong, as the 25-year-old hit .289 — the second-best mark on the team and the 12th-best mark in the AL. That’s not stopping us from going back to the well in 2022, though. He’s flying under the radar this season, and improved health could mean a true breakout across the board, especially if opponents look to pitch around the big boppers in Boston’s lineup.
2. Rafael Devers will lead the AL in home runs
NESN betting expert Sam Panayotovich recently explained why he’s pounding the Over on Devers’ home run total (37.5) set by DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s go a step further, and say Devers outslugs the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, among others, en route to a campaign that’ll only magnify his value as a middle-of-the-order force.
3. Garrett Whitlock will join the rotation… and stick in the rotation
Whitlock, who fought for the No. 5 spot in the rotation during spring training, is set to begin the season in the bullpen, likely piggybacking Rich Hill and pitching in multi-inning bursts. It’s an important role that could go a long way toward stabilizing an unpredictable unit, but it’s also not hard to imagine a scenario where Whitlock eventually takes advantage of an opening in the rotation and never looks back. His emergence as a reliable, consistent starter would be even more valuable to the Red Sox.
4. The Red Sox will trade for an outfielder
Vague? Sure. Which mostly is a reflection of how few options seemingly are available on the trade market right now. But guys will become available in time, as the contenders and pretenders start to separate themselves. And the Red Sox have a huge need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder — preferably one comfortable navigating the unique dimensions of right field at Fenway Park. The left-handed-hitting Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a difficult 2021 with the Milwaukee Brewers and is best suited for a platoon role that’ll minimize his exposure to southpaws, and the idea of sticking J.D. Martinez and/or Christian Arroyo out on the grass is concerning.
5. Brayan Bello will be Boston’s closer down the stretch
The Red Sox will continue to groom Bello, arguably their top pitching prospect, as a starter to begin 2022. If he improves his command, fine-tunes his slider and irons out his delivery, there’s reason to believe he’ll ultimately find a long-term home in the rotation. But the Red Sox don’t have an obvious closer, and Bello is the type of hurler we often see arrive near the end of the season to make an immediate impact out of the bullpen. He’s equipped with a high-90s fastball and a devastating changeup — a repertoire that’ll play in the later innings — and while the 22-year-old has yet to pitch above Double-A, he’s already on the 40-man roster.
6. Triston Casas will finish among the top three in AL Rookie of the Year voting
Casas is starting the year at Triple-A Worcester. Just don’t expect him to stay there very long. A midseason call-up certainly seems within reason, especially if Bobby Dalbec struggles and first base again becomes an issue for Boston. Casas, a physically imposing presence in the batter’s box, has such an advanced offensive approach for someone his age (22) that he’ll be positioned to enjoy immediate success at the big league level. He’ll finish a notch below fellow rookies Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio RodrÃguez, who carved out Opening Day roles with the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners, respectively.
7. Nathan Eovaldi will sign a contract extension with the Red Sox
The Red Sox weren’t able to reach a contract extension with Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out next offseason, or Rafael Devers, who’s under club control through 2023. And Eovaldi told reporters Thursday he didn’t engage in contract talks with the organization despite his own impending free agency after the 2022 campaign. But Eovaldi also acknowledged he’s open to discussing a new deal during the season — something Bogaerts and Devers would prefer not to do — and the sides would be wise to explore extending what’s so far been a fruitful relationship.
