Trevor Story carried the monkey on his back for the Red Sox’s first 30 games of 2022, a stretch that spanned more than a month and included 110 plate appearances.
Then, with one swing Wednesday night at Truist Park, he removed the monkey and sent it flying over the center field fence, connecting on his first home run in a Boston uniform as the Red Sox suffered a 5-3 walk-off loss to the Atlanta Braves.
Now, the question becomes: Is this the start of something bigger for Story?
It’s been a tumultuous season thus far for both the Red Sox and their prized offseason addition, as Story entered Thursday’s off-day batting .206 with just the one homer, 14 RBIs and a .585 OPS. Boston’s record sat at 11-20, worst in the American League East and fourth-worst in Major League Baseball.
But there’s evidence to suggest Story’s struggles soon might dissipate, with Boston’s brief trip to Atlanta marking a turning point for the high-priced infielder. Story went 3-for-9 with four RBIs and two runs scored as the Red Sox and Braves split their two-game series, an obvious improvement from him being showered with boos at Fenway Park while going 3-for-24 with 12 strikeouts during the most recent homestand.
“He’s putting (together) good swings,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said after Wednesday’s defeat, per MLB.com. “To see him hitting the ball straight center, that’s a good approach, good swing.”
Of course, it’d be naïve to think a two-game sample size is a harbinger of what’s to come. And frankly, the Red Sox’s split in Atlanta further exposed Boston’s flaws, which extend well beyond Story, whose slow start theoretically can be explained away by his truncated spring training that followed both a lockout and a lengthy stay in free agency. As such, it’s necessary to dig deeper, at which point you’ll discover reasons for optimism. All definitely is not lost for the two-time All-Star.
For one, Story isn’t making terrible contact. His average exit velocity (89.9) is tied for 60th among 144 qualified hitters, per Statcast. It’s the same exact mark he posted in 2020 — when he batted .289 with 11 homers, 28 RBIs and an .874 OPS in 259 plate appearances en route to finishing 11th in National League MVP voting during the pandemic-shortened season — and a tick above the 89.8 exit velo posted by teammate Xander Bogaerts.
Story’s max exit velocity (111.8), meanwhile, ranks 46th, putting him in the 87th percentile. And his barrel percentage (9.1%) actually is higher than it was in 2020 (8.7%) or 2019 (7.7%). So, it’s not like he’s suddenly incapable of impacting the baseball.
The early inconsistency, it seems, stems from two major issues:
1) He’s falling behind in counts, evidenced by a 31% called + swinging strike percentage that’s worse than his career mark (26.9). Which has led to a 32.5% strikeout rate that’s higher than his norm (27.8).
And 2) He’s hitting too many unproductive flyballs. Story owns a 45% career flyball rate, yet that number has ballooned to 51.5% this season. His 20.6% infield flyball rate — compared to a 9.7% career mark — is especially troublesome. Clearly, he’s getting under the baseball.
We can’t just assume these things will regress to the mean. But consider this: Story’s launch angle (LA) sits at 23.2 degrees, the fifth-most pronounced LA in baseball and a far cry from his usual 18-degree LA. The 2020 campaign was the only season in which his LA sat higher than 20 degrees.
This very much feels like a classic case of a newcomer looking to do too much, with the allure of peppering the Green Monster perhaps playing into him swinging from the heels more frequently. Story is at his best when he’s drilling line drives. Like in 2019, when his line-drive rate was a career-best 24.3%. Unlike this season, when he’s hitting line drives at a career-worst 18.2% clip.
Overall, when you couple the quality of contact with the shortened ramp-up, and then consider Story switched teams and leagues, it’s not unreasonable to think better days lie ahead for the 29-year-old. He just needs to get back to the approach he had for six seasons with the Colorado Rockies, and this year’s issues, generally speaking, seem very correctable.
Story alleviated some pressure with Wednesday night’s slump-busting blast. He soon might find himself on a more successful trajectory, much to Boston’s benefit.
