Last year, the Patriots made the NFL playoffs despite going 1-3 in their first four games and compiling the same record over their final four contests. A seven-game win streak will do that.
In 2022, they might only be able to withstand one rough patch.
While anything can happen, including New England exceeding expectations and seemingly difficult opponents failing to meet them, the final seven games of the Patriots season currently look daunting. The only teams in that stretch that didn’t qualify for the 2021 playoffs are the Minnesota Vikings, whom the Patriots will visit on Thanksgiving Day, and the Miami Dolphins, who will make the trip to Gillette Stadium. Both of those games still could be tough sledding, with the Dolphins, winners of six of nine against the Patriots, never a layup opponent for Bill Belichick’s team.
Here’s the full schedule:
Week 1: at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 2: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, Sept. 18, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 3: vs. Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, Sept. 25, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 4: at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Week 5: vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 6: at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 7: vs. Chicago Bears (Monday, Oct. 24, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Week 8: at New York Jets (Sunday, Oct. 30, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 9: vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: vs. New York Jets (Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 12: at Minnesota Vikings (Thanksgiving, Nov. 24, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Week 13: vs. Buffalo Bills (Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Week 14: at Arizona Cardinals (Monday, Dec. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, Dec. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Week 16: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday, Dec. 24, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 17: vs. Miami Dolphins (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)
Week 18: at Buffalo Bills (Saturday/Sunday, Jan. 7/8, TBD)
Those final four games might be especially tough. The Raiders are vastly improved and finished ahead of New England in last season’s standings; the Bengals are the defending AFC champions; and the Dolphins and Bills both swept the Patriots in 2021.
While it might not feel like it, the Patriots ultimately squeaked into the postseason at 10-7, only finishing with one more victory than the seventh-seeded Steelers and three additional teams. Will 10-7 be enough in a conference that, on paper, looks even more competitive than it was last year? Perhaps, but the Patriots first must actually reach 10 victories.
With that said, let’s plot a semi-realistic 17-game roadmap:
— The Patriots open with back-to-back road victories, taking down the still-figuring-things-out Dolphins (led by a new head coach), and making relatively easy work of the Steelers, who’ll have either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett under center.
— New England slips up in its home opener, falling to Lamar Jackson and the always-tough Ravens.
— The Patriots lose at Lambeau Field — because Aaron Rodgers.
— Jared Goff does Jared Goff things as the Lions get trounced in Foxboro.
— The Patriots win at Cleveland, which might not have Deshaun Watson or will just have started integrating him post-suspension.
— New England gets a Monday-night home win over the Bears, who might be terrible this season.
— The Patriots go on the road and beat the Jets, who, until further notice, still are the Jets.
— Matt Ryan and the high-powered Colts come into Gillette Stadium and beat the Patriots, sending them into the bye week on a disappointing loss.
— New England returns from the bye and protects home field against the Jets, who put up a good fight.
At this hypothetical point, the Patriots are 7-3 and look to be in good shape. Then, the aforementioned gauntlet begins.
To finish exactly 10-7, the Patriots would need to go 3-4 against the Vikings, Bills (twice), Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins. That certainly feels doable, but recent history suggests the Patriots could limp to the finish line.
One of the many hallmarks of the Tom Brady era was New England playing its best football at the end of the season. While other teams fell apart, the Patriots surged. But over the last three seasons, the Patriots are 6-10 in games after Dec. 1.
Since winning Super Bowl LIII, they’ve been a losing team in the winter months. That trend must reverse this season.
It’s not hard to envision New England beating the Kirk Cousins and the Vikings on the road, doing the same to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, who’ve developed a habit of fading in the second half, and taking care of business against the Dolphins in Foxboro. But you also could make cases for the Patriots losing any of those games, as well as the other four. There are no projected cupcake matchups after the Week 11 Jets game.
(And that’s to say nothing of the rigors of New England’s schedule, which features five short weeks and five primetime games.)
For the sake of finishing the roadmap, and being optimistic, let’s say the Patriots get back-to-back Thursday night wins over the Vikings and Bills before losing in Arizona. Then, Belichick gets the better of Josh McDaniels in a thrilling Sunday night affair in Vegas. New England then falls to the Bengals, beats the Dolphins and finishes the campaign by getting Josh Allen’d in Buffalo.
That would leave New England with an 11-6 record, which is dependent on the Patriots enjoying a strong first half. Again, we have no idea what these teams will look like down the road, but this really feels like a best-case scenario.
That record should be enough to qualify for the playoffs, but it also leaves little room for error. Such is the reality of a post-Brady world with a vastly improved division and an AFC featuring remarkable parody.
