Who will win the 2022 Home Run Derby?
That’s the simple question that was posed to members of the NESN Digital team ahead of Monday night’s gopher-ball, ding-dong, tall-jack competition at Dodger Stadium. And the responses reflect the unpredictable nature of this year’s event in Los Angeles.
Pete Alonso, the back-to-back champion, enters as the betting favorite, with a chance to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players ever to win the Home Run Derby thrice. Alonso also can become the first to win three consecutive Home Run Derby titles.
Alonso will be joined in the single-elimination, bracket-style tournament by seven worthy adversaries, making for a loaded field that’s ripe with both up-and-coming stars and accomplished veterans. Alonso beat Trey Mancini of the Baltimore Orioles in the finals last year, one tourney after defeating Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays in the final round.
Here are the eight 2022 participants, by seed, along with their betting odds per DraftKings Sportsbook:
1. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +330
2. Pete Alonso, New York Mets +200
3. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers +1000
4. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals +550
5. José RamÃrez, Cleveland Guardians +1700
6. Julio RodrÃguez, Seattle Mariners +800
7. Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves +650
8. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals +2200
Now, here are our picks for who will emerge victorious:
Mike Cole: Kyle Schwarber
There’s a lot to like about Schwarber in this spot. No one in the field has a higher exit velocity than the Phillies slugger, and he also has a seemingly advantageous first-round matchup against 42-year-old Albert Pujols. Only José RamÃrez has a higher average launch angle, too, so he has the sort of ball flight to get it done. And while there’s no evidence to support, Schwarber just feels like the kind of player who really wants to win the long-ball competition.
Ricky Doyle: Juan Soto
The home run derby doesn’t properly magnify Soto’s greatness as a hitter, which is predicated on controlling the strike zone at an elite level. But it’s the perfect stage for the 23-year-old to remind everyone he probably would post higher homer totals annually if he sold out for power. Soto also has experience — he upset Shohei Ohtani in the first round and barely lost to Pete Alonso in the second round last year — and the extra motivation of being tossed around in trade rumors.
Sean McGuire: Julio RodrÃguez
I’m going with a bit of a sleeper, with the betting prices offering an enticing wager given the unpredictability of the event itself. RodrÃguez, the Mariners’ rookie phenom, has a very winnable first-round matchup against Corey Seager before he likely meets Pete Alonso in the second round. Could RodrÃguez defeat Alonso, a two-time defending champion? Nobody has ever won three straight crowns.
Ben Watanabe: Kyle Schwarber
I’ll be boring and go with the No. 1 seed. Schwarber’s been on a tear the last month-plus, and my entirely-anecdotal-and-not-at-all-scientific assumption is that coming into the Derby hot is an advantage. My only worry is how he’ll maintain his pace over the multi-round format.
