The Red Sox played 93 games in the first half, meaning they have 69 remaining on the schedule, yet it’s still difficult to determine whether they’re legitimate contenders or pretenders.
Boston entered the Major League Baseball All-Star break with a 48-45 record, a decent mark considering how the Red Sox started the season but not nearly good enough to compete with the New York Yankees atop the American League East.
The Bronx Bombers own a 13-game lead over the second-place Tampa Bay Rays, a 14 1/2-game edge over the third-place Toronto Blue Jays and a 16 1/2-game advantage over the fourth-place Red Sox. The Baltimore Orioles sit 18 games back after a surprisingly competitive first half in which they went 46-46.
All told, the Red Sox are firmly in the second tier of AL teams, capable of making a wild-card push but facing enough questions that it’s hard to figure out their ceiling. We’re not going to let that stop us from looking into the crystal ball, though.
Here are seven random Red Sox predictions for the second half of the 2022 season.
1. The Red Sox will acquire controllable pitching at the MLB trade deadline
How Boston begins the second half could go a long way toward determining Chaim Bloom’s trade deadline strategy. A hot start could solidify the Red Sox as buyers. Continued struggles — they lost six of their final seven games before the break — might push them toward seller territory.
This prediction is based on the idea that Bloom and company might tiptoe the line and consider a little bit of both. A reshuffling of sorts. The Red Sox probably won’t want to go all-in for rentals if they look sluggish between now and Aug. 2, but they still could eye deals for players under club control beyond this season. And the bullpen is a good place to focus, as it’s a short-term need that also requires some long-term stability given Boston’s current roster construction.
2. Triston Casas will debut with Boston
Casas, who suffered a sprained ankle May 17, is expected to return to the lineup at Triple-A Worcester this week, theoretically moving him one step closer to Boston when you consider the Red Sox’s continued lack of production at first base. The Red Sox could seek help externally before the deadline, but Casas entered the season as a near-MLB-ready prospect. It’s almost time to see what the 22-year-old can do at the major league level, provided he demonstrates he’s fully healthy with the WooSox.
3. Bryan Mata will, too
Mata is back from Tommy John surgery and already showing why he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the Red Sox system. The organization will remain cautious, no doubt, likely with an eye toward the hard-throwing right-hander contributing for Boston in 2023. But the 23-year-old was nearing the big league doorstep before going under the knife. He could force the Red Sox’s hand this season, potentially as a reliever down the stretch if Boston still needs a spark in the bullpen.
4. Alex Verdugo will lead the American League in second-half hits
Bold? Sure. There are a lot of good hitters and Verdugo hasn’t exactly built upon his stellar June since the calendar flipped to July. But his production last month still was very encouraging, and there are reasons to believe he’s a second-half breakout candidate.
Verdugo slashed .337/.400/.505 with three home runs and 19 RBIs in 24 games in June (105 plate appearances). His .277 BABIP this season is below the usual .300 league-average mark and below his .313 career mark. He’s in the 96th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), ranking ninth in the majors with a .293 mark — three spots behind Rafael Devers (.299) and two ahead of Aaron Judge (.291), for additional context. And he rarely whiffs, landing in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate.
Also worth noting: August is typically Verdugo’s best month. He owns a .323/.384/.530 slash line with seven homers and 22 RBIs in 219 career August plate appearances.
5. Trevor Story will lock up a Gold Glove award
Red Sox manager Alex Cora has raved about Story’s defense this season, his first at second base after playing exclusively at shortstop with the Colorado Rockies. It’s warranted, too, as Story has been awesome at the keystone. Defensive analytics seem to favor Detroit Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop right now, but we’ll lean toward Story, assuming he returns from the injured list and picks up where he left off.
6. Chris Sale will return … as a reliever
This is a total guess, obviously, because we don’t know whether Sale will be physically able to pitch again this season after undergoing surgery on his pinkie finger Monday. But let’s say the digit heals OK. The problem for Sale might be ramping up his pitch count (again) to the point where he’s able to start. If so, the Red Sox could, in theory, opt to use him in short bursts out of the bullpen, where they currently have a need. Some Sale is better than no Sale at all, right? Of course, this all hinges on where Boston stands in the AL playoff race.
7. The Red Sox will secure an AL wild-card spot
Speaking of which, we’ll go out on a limb and say the Red Sox lock down a spot in the postseason, despite the ups and downs they’ve experienced so far in 2022. Boston entered the break two games behind Toronto for the third and final AL wild-card spot. The Rays and Seattle Mariners occupied the top two spots. It’ll be hard to overcome any of those teams — and don’t count out the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, among others — but a few internal reinforcements, an external move or two and some positive regression should open the door for playoff baseball.
