Patriots Vs. Ravens Week 3 Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick

Are we looking at a breakout game for the Patriots offense?


September 23

The New England Patriots are finally back in Foxboro for the home opener Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

It’s been a mixed bag through two weeks for both teams, and Bill Belichick’s team is hoping it can build some momentum in its first game at Gillette Stadium this season. The Patriots got into the win column by outlasting the Steelers last week in a slugfest, but the Ravens present a very different challenge this week.

Baltimore, meanwhile, wants to bounce back following an extremely disappointing Week 2 loss. John Harbaugh and company built a huge lead at home against Miami only for the Dolphins to storm all the way back and steal a wild one.

The Patriots are in an unfamiliar position of being a home underdog, as Baltimore opened as 3-point favorites but have been bet down to 2.5 as of Friday.

Here’s what bettors should know before placing their Week 3 wagers with odds and props courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

(-2.5) Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Total: Over/under 40
When: Sunday, Sept. 25, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

The betting market is still struggling to figure out these new Patriots. New England is 0-3-1 against the spread in its last four games overall. They’ve been a bad bet early in the season, too, going 1-3-1 ATS in their last five September games. We mentioned the rarity of the Patriots catching points at home, and the historical trends do indicate that’s a valuable proposition. New England’s 15-4 ATS record as a home dog under Belichick looks notable. The obvious caveat? Fifteen of those games came with Tom Brady at quarterback. The Patriots covered 12 of those 15 games, and they’re just 3-2 ATS without Brady in those spots.

The Ravens, on the other hand, have been a good bounce-back candidate for bettors to circle. Harbaugh is 7-3 ATS in the Ravens’ last 10 games following a loss, and Baltimore is also 4-0 ATS the last four games after failing to cover the previous week. They have struggled to cover as favorites, though, going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as favorites.

Damien Harris Over 45.5 rushing yards -120:
One thing Ravens bettors will have to sweat — and stop us if you’ve heard this one before — is the injury report. Already banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary, Baltimore’s linebacker room has been decimated now, too. Those defensive injuries will take their toll at some point, you’d think, and while New England might not be well-equipped to expose the secondary issues like Miami did, the run game has some big-play potential. Yes, they like to divvy up usage, but Harris has at least 48 rushing yards in each game this season.

Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown +450:
The Athletic had an interesting tidbit on Likely this week. While the rookie only saw 21 snaps (36%), he was targeted on five of the eight routes he ran. Likely hauled in four of those for 43 yards for an efficient afternoon. Assuming there’s some building confidence there between him and Lamar Jackson, it’s possible Likely gets a chance to cash in at some point Sunday, especially if the Patriots try to take away some of the Ravens’ top weapons.

PICK: Over 44 (-110)
Between the Ravens’ injuries and finally getting to play in the comfortable confines of Gillette Stadium, the New England offense should look the best it’s been yet, especially if they’re stacking weeks and improving. On the other side, the Ravens’ offense obviously speaks for itself as one of the more explosive units in the league. It sounds like both Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman will be good to go Sunday, giving Jackson his full arsenal. The Ravens lead the league in yards per play through two weeks, and that quick-strike ability that can get you to the over is always there with Baltimore.

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