When the NFL regular season comes to an end, we might look back on the Week 11 game between the Patriots and the Jets as the game that ultimately determined the playoff fates for both teams.
New England on Oct. 30 won the first matchup in relatively easy fashion, completely dismantling New York quarterback Zach Wilson and doing just enough on offense to earn a 22-17 victory. The game both made it hard to envision the Jets ever overcoming Wilson’s issues and set up New England to leap-frog New York in the AFC standings the following weekend. All the Patriots had to do last Sunday to move into an AFC playoff spot was beat the Colts at home and get a loss from either the Jets (vs. Bills) or Chargers (at Falcons).
Well, New England took care of business against Indianapolis, but it got no help from Buffalo and Atlanta. The Jets rebounded with a stunning, dramatic victory over the Bills, and Los Angeles earned a last-second victory over the Falcons. The Patriots and Jets both entered their bye weeks above .500, with New York at 6-3 and New England at 5-4.
Now, all eyes are on the Nov. 20 rematch at Gillette Stadium.
Barring weird, unforeseen developments — Josh Allen’s mysterious elbow injury could qualify — the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans all will win their respective divisions. Similarly, the seven sub-.500 AFC teams — Indy leads the group in the standings at 3-5-1 — probably won’t sniff the postseason.
That leaves five teams, including the Patriots, left fighting for three playoff spots — with one game or less separating all of them. And, at this point, it might be fair to pencil the 6-3 Miami Dolphins into the playoffs, as they get better every week and look like one of the better teams in the conference. So, let’s call it four teams battling for two playoff spots.
The six-win Jets currently lead the group, with the Patriots, Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals all sitting at five victories. While much can happen between now and the end of the regular season, it’s easy to imagine dreaded tiebreakers factoring into the final standings. That’s why New England would do itself a ton of favors with another victory over New York.
The tiebreaking procedures get a bit screwy as more are needed, but here are the three that matter the most, in the order in which they’re applied:
1. Head-to-head record
2. In-conference record
3. Common games record
The Patriots obviously won’t have to worry about tiebreakers if they beat the Jets a second time. The same is true for the Patriots-Bengals Christmas Eve game in Foxboro, Mass., and the upcoming matchups with the Bills, should New England somehow manage a sweep. But things could get messy if New York wins, thus removing head-to-head from the equation.
The Jets currently have the better in-conference record — 5-3 compared to the Patriots’ 4-2 — and the gap will widen if they win at Gillette. Additionally, New York already has wins over two teams (Dolphins, Green Bay Packers) that beat New England, and its victory over Buffalo could prove important if the Bills wind up sweeping the Patriots. By the way, these could be the kinds of things the Patriots are fighting for when they host Miami in Week 17, though we have no idea what the teams’ respective records will look like by then.
Of course, none of this will matter if the Patriots, who face a daunting second-half schedule, crater down the stretch as they did last season. At the end of the day, New England likely will need at least four (probably five) wins in its last eight games, which include matchups with the Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Bills (twice), Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders. That’s a tough ask.
However, even if the Patriots pull it off, it might not mean anything if a Week 11 loss to the Jets comes back to bite them. And that’s to say nothing of the bigger-picture implications of such a defeat, as the Jets winning a huge, late-November game in Foxboro could be a paradigm-shifting moment for the AFC East — and for Mac Jones.
Or the Patriots could blow doors at Gillette and put the Jets back in their place. You absolutely can’t rule that out given the head coaches involved. But through nine weeks, the reality is we still have no idea of how good the Patriots really are or what they can do well on a consistent basis. If anything, they kinda feel like last season’s Patriots, and not in a good way.
As for the Jets, we don’t know a ton about them, either, other than their young quarterback being an erratic wild card and their defense being legitimately good. Their 6-3 record might be a better story than an indicator of how good they truly are.
The good news is that these two flawed, unproven teams soon will meet in a game that should provide a clearer picture of both.
