Nathan Eovaldi joined exclusive company this season when he became the 12th pitcher in Red Sox history to make three consecutive Opening Day starts.
That streak could end in 2023, though, as Eovaldi is set to become a free agent as Boston enters a crucial Major League Baseball offseason in which it must answer several questions related to its starting rotation.
The Red Sox acquired Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays for Jalen Beeks in 2018, and the right-hander wasted no time in endearing himself to the fan base and the organization by playing a vital role in Boston’s World Series run. As such, he was rewarded that winter with a four-year, $68 million contract that at one point looked awful — as Eovaldi battled injuries and ineffectiveness — but ultimately proved a solid investment.
There are several high-profile starters who could pique Boston’s interest in free agency this offseason, including Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodón, among others. But Eovaldi is firmly entrenched in the second tier of available arms, likely to draw plenty of interest on the open market — perhaps even from the Red Sox. It wouldn’t be surprising if Boston offers Eovaldi a one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer and goes from there.
Let’s examine the case for (and against) the Red Sox re-signing Eovaldi.
2022 stats
20 starts (109 1/3 innings)
6-3, 3.87 ERA
103 strikeouts, 20 walks
4.30 FIP, 1.24 WHIP
The case for re-signing Eovaldi
Stability. Continuity. Familiarity. Whatever you want to call it. The Red Sox really only have three pitchers penciled into their 2023 rotation: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello. Four if you count Garrett Whitlock, whose role remains unclear but should receive another opportunity to start. And even that group is littered with question marks, given Sale’s injury issues over the last three years and Bello’s youth. Pivetta probably is the most bankable asset, with the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter but more likely a back-end arm. Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, like Eovaldi, are free agents.
That means the Red Sox need at least two starters. And while Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom should go big-game hunting, with plenty of money coming off the books, it’s no sure thing Boston lands a top prize. Eovaldi, meanwhile, has solid upside, even entering his age-33 season, and the potential to be a rotation stalwart. There’s always some injury risk — Eovaldi has undergone two Tommy John surgeries — and home runs have been an issue, but the 2021 All-Star features excellent velocity and control, as well as a five-pitch repertoire that’s evolved over the years.
And oh, by the way, Eovaldi usually is nails in the postseason, where Boston hopes to return next season.
The case against re-signing Eovaldi
Health forever will be the elephant in the room, with Eovaldi having undergone the two Tommy John surgeries, and he’s coming off a 2022 season in which he landed on injured list twice — with inflammation in his back and throwing shoulder. While he’s not exactly the quintessential power pitcher, thanks to some added finesse and good-but-not-great strikeout numbers, it’s still fair to wonder how he’ll fare into his mid-30s if the velocity continues to tick down, as it did in 2022. The Statcast numbers this season weren’t pretty, with Eovaldi surrendering far too much hard contact in addition to 1.73 homers per nine innings, the fourth-worst mark in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
There’s a lot to like about Eovaldi, including his makeup. He’s a competitor who’s respected in the clubhouse. But the price point ultimately could be the determining factor in whether he returns to Boston, because there are enough physical- and performance-based red flags to have some trepidation about extending a long-term offer to the veteran righty.
