Trumpets blaring. Triple-digit heat. Strikeouts galore.
Edwin Díaz pitching for the Boston Red Sox would have been a blast.
Yet, the possibility always felt like a long shot. And now that Díaz reportedly is returning to the New York Mets on a five-year, $102 million contract — the richest deal ever given to a reliever — it would behoove Boston to target his younger, cheaper, lesser-known brother, Alexis, who’s coming off a dominant rookie season with the Cincinnati Reds.
Admittedly, comparing Edwin Díaz to Alexis Díaz is apples and oranges. Whereas Edwin Díaz was set to become a free agent, available to sign with any team, Alexis Díaz is under club control with Cincinnati for five more seasons, including two more years before he’s arbitration eligible. Edwin Díaz, a well-established closer with two All-Star appearances on his résumé, turns 29 in March. Alexis Díaz, an up-and-coming reliever with a 63 2/3-inning sample size at the big-league level, will be 26 for most of the 2023 campaign.
Interestingly enough, it’s that discrepancy between the pitchers’ situations that actually makes Alexis Díaz arguably a more enticing long-term option for the Red Sox than his older brother. Sure, opening up the checkbook for Edwin Díaz — or any free agent, for that matter — theoretically is easier, logistically speaking, than agreeing to trade compensation with another team, especially for a player with Alexis Díaz’s blend of youth, upside and contractual control. But Boston has several holes it needs to plug this offseason. Bolstering the bullpen via trade, while simultaneously using free agency to augment other areas, is a viable path forward. And there’s a lot to like about Alexis Díaz’s outlook.
Alexis Díaz posted a 1.84 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 59 relief appearances with the Reds this season. He ultimately became Cincinnati’s closer down the stretch, totaling 10 saves for a team that lost 100 games, and struck out 11.7 batters per nine innings, a solid mark that could improve with increased experience in The Show. Opponents batted .126 against Alexis Díaz over his final 32 appearances (33 2/3 innings) following a rough patch in June.
The season-long FIP (3.32) suggests some good fortune, and his 4.7 walks per nine innings were somewhat concerning. But a quick glance at Alexis Díaz’s Statcast page — which features plenty of red — offers additional optimism regarding his future. The hard-throwing right-hander ranked in the 100th percentile in fastball spin, the 99th percentile in expected batting average against and the 97th percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Basically, Alexis Díaz was really, really good. And it’s reasonable to expect he’ll only get better in 2023 and beyond. Maybe not to the level of his older brother, Edwin. It would be unfair to place such expectations on anyone, especially based on bloodline. But there’s top-10 closer potential there, and the Red Sox clearly need to reinforce the back end of their bullpen with power arms after a lackluster 2022.
So, why would the Reds consider trading Alexis Díaz given all that we’ve mentioned? Maybe they wouldn’t. But SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week the Mets contacted Cincinnati about trading for him back in July. And while New York obviously was rebuffed in that attempt, it seems somewhat notable as the Reds near their own crossroads after finishing 38 games under .500 (62-100).
Cincinnati can’t afford to not be open-minded this winter. Same goes for Boston. One Díaz door might’ve closed, but perhaps another one will open if the Red Sox pry hard enough.
