Corey Kluber has a wonderful résumé: two-time Cy Young Award winner, three-time All-Star, has led the big leagues in ERA and innings pitched at points in his career.
Between 2011 and 2018, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over that stretch, only Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale were worth more wins above replacement.
If the Red Sox were getting that version of Kluber, Wednesday’s news of a reported one-year deal worth $10 million would be a huge development. Then again, if they were getting that version of Kluber, it might cost them a little more than $10 million.
Given the recent departures of Nathan Eovaldi, and to a slightly lesser extent Rich Hill, the Red Sox had to do something to reinforce their rotation. They technically have five starters who could be penciled in for Alex Cora’s Opening Day rotation, but there’s uncertainty abound with the five guys in the mix. And even if there was certainty about their collective dependability, it doesn’t hurt to have “too many” capable big league pitchers.
Kluber certainly checks that box even at his relatively advanced age — he turns 37 in April — along with his injury history and battle to regain anything resembling his prime form.
Injuries led to a crater in his career when he pitched just 36 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. And despite the fact he pitched just one inning in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the Yankees took a chance on him for 2021. He pitched well enough, making 16 starts highlighted by a no-hitter. He went 5-3 with a 3.83 ERA, though he hadn’t quite regained the pinpoint control that helped him win the two Cy Young Awards.
He turned that Yankees season into a bid with the Rays last season where he was remarkably durable. Kluber made 31 starts — his most in a season since leading the league with 215 innings pitched in 2018 — and went 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA.
His 3.57 FIP in 2022 suggests he pitched better than his traditional results would indicate. That’s the good news. Even better was his control was very much back; Kluber walked just 21 batters all season, his 1.2 walks per nine innings leading the majors. But it’s clear the stuff has been diminished, as he struck out just 7.6 batters per nine innings.
Batters put the ball in play more often than Kluber typically has yielded in his career. For the most part, he induced relatively weak contact. His 6.9% barrel rate was in line with the 2018 mark, and his average exit velocity against, 87.1 mph, basically matched his career rate and registered below the league average of 88.4 mph.
If the Red Sox can play sound defense, and Kluber can avoid the long ball, he’ll have success in Boston. Neither of those are guarantees, though, as the Boston defense as it stands right now is likely worse than it was in 2022, and the home-run luck can be dicey at Fenway Park. The expected slugging percentage of .370 ranked 262nd among 358 pitchers last season.
Even if Kluber shows his age, the money is relatively low-risk, and the club obviously isn’t overextended with the short-term deal. The other side to that, though, is he’s also unlikely to be a major difference-maker either. If the Red Sox can get 100 to 130 solid innings out of Kluber, his deal will represent good value a la Michael Wacha in 2022, but just how much closer it gets Boston to a World Series title is relatively minimal.
