It’s mathematically impossible for the Patriots to finish with the fifth seed or higher in the AFC. If New England winds up making the playoffs, it most likely will be as the conference’s seventh seed.
However, finishing with the sixth seed — and thus potentially avoiding a first-round trip to Kansas City or Buffalo — remains possible. But the path to that outcome starts Monday night in Indianapolis.
New England’s most straightforward road to the postseason is to win its final two games: vs. the Miami Dolphins and at the Buffalo Bills. If it does that, Bill Belichick’s team is guaranteed a spot in the NFL playoffs. The Patriots also could earn a spot if they beat the Dolphins and lose to the Bills, but that would require the Los Angeles Chargers losing their final three games.
In any case, the Patriots must beat the Dolphins this Sunday. If they lose, they’re eliminated from playoff contention.
Now, about the sixth seed.
There are multiple ways for New England to finish with the sixth seed, but all of them require the Chargers to lose to the Colts on Monday night. It’s impossible for the Patriots to earn higher than the seventh seed if Los Angeles prevails at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(You can click here to review the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures.)
(And you can click here to check our math with ESPN’s playoff machine.)
Scenario 1
Chargers lose to Colts, beat Rams, lose to Denver Broncos
Patriots beat Dolphins and Bills
In this scenario, the Patriots and Chargers both finish 9-8 but New England earns the higher spot thanks to the conference-record tiebreaker.
Scenario 2
Chargers lose to Colts, lose to Rams, beat Broncos
Patriots beat Dolphins and Bills
In this scenario, New England and Los Angeles both finish 9-8 overall, 7-5 in-conference and 4-2 in common games, but the Patriots earn the higher spot thanks to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker.
Scenario 3
Chargers lose to Colts, Rams and Broncos
Patriots beat Dolphins and Bills
In this scenario, the Patriots get the sixth seed by finishing with the better overall record
Scenario 4
Chargers beat Colts, lose to Rams and Broncos
Patriots beat Dolphins and Bills
In this scenario, the Patriots and Chargers both finish 9-8 overall and 7-5 in-conference but Los Angeles finishes higher thanks to a better record in common games (5-1 vs. 4-2).
Got all that? Good.
But wait, there’s more!
Believe it or not, there’s a way for the Patriots to finish 8-9 and still earn the sixth seed. But that whacky scenario would require the Chargers to lose out, Miami to stumble against the New York Jets in Week 18 and for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders both to lose at least one of their remaining games.
So, who are New England’s possible first-round opponents?
In all likelihood, the Patriots would visit the Chiefs, Bills or Cincinnati Bengals if they make the playoffs. However, if New England finishes with the sixth seed, Kansas City wins one of its remaining games and Baltimore wins out, the Patriots would visit the Ravens in Round 1. There also is a way for the two teams to meet with New England as the seventh seed and Baltimore as the second seed, but we’ll spare you further headaches.
That still would be a very difficult matchup for the Patriots, as evidenced by the Ravens’ Week 3 victory at Gillette Stadium. But such a game also could be a best-case scenario for New England, especially with the health of star quarterback Lamar Jackson still a question mark.
That the Patriots are stuck in such a tangled web of mediocrity probably means all of this path math is meaningless. New England looks like little more than first-round fodder for one of the AFC’s superior teams.
But it also underscores the harsh reality of the Patriots’ many missed opportunities this season. Imagine how different things would be if Belichick and company found a way to win one of their brutally close games against the Bengals, Raiders, Green Bay Packers or Minnesota Vikings.
Anyway, these are just a few confusing things to think about ahead of what could be a fascinating final two weeks of the NFL regular season.
