The Red Sox should have a pretty good idea of how they’ll deploy Trevor Story offensively and the sort of production they can expect from the former All-Star.
The looming question, however, is also fairly obvious: What defensive position will the infielder play?
Story was one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball last season. When healthy, his elite athleticism helped him hit the ground running after spending the bulk of his career as a shortstop with the Colorado Rockies. He found pretty immediate chemistry alongside Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who had perhaps the best defensive season of his career.
Bogaerts has since departed, leaving a gaping hole at arguably the most important position on the field.
The Red Sox are still turning over stones, but Story at shortstop seems like the most likely outcome. Even as the Red Sox proclaimed Bogaerts was part of the long-term plan when they signed Story last season, there was always at least some slight suspicion he represented Bogaerts insurance should the club fail to re-sign the franchise pillar.
Assuming Story’s legs and general athleticism haven’t seen a significant drop-off, he likely represents an upgrade over Bogaerts, at least in terms of the balls he can get to with his range. As a shortstop, he was among the best in the business. No one logged more shortstop innings than Story between 2018 and 2021, and only three players — Nick Ahmed, Carlos Correa and Javy Baez — had a higher total runs saved.
To put that in more perspective: Story’s 4,296.1 innings at shortstop were the most in the big leagues over that time. Bogaerts was second by a little more than 100 innings. Story’s total runs saved over that period was 43; Bogaerts’ total was minus 26.
The massive elephant in the room, though, is Story’s arm. He missed time in 2021 with a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. While Story said the elbow didn’t bother him in his first season with the Red Sox, the numbers suggest otherwise — or, perhaps even more uncomfortable, the notion this is just who he is now.
Thanks to Baseball Savant, we now have statistical data to help quantify arm strength. Story in 2021 ranked 52 of 58 qualified shortstops in average arm strength, with an average throw speed of 79 mph. The real cause for concern, as it pertains to those numbers, is that it represented a sharp drop-off. Story ranked 22nd of 34 shortstops in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with an average of 82.3 mph.
Bogaerts, for what it’s worth, ranked 38th in 2021 at just under 82 mph and actually improved to 82.1 mph last season.
From an arm-strength perspective, moving Story to second base made sense. It generally worked. He was good for six runs saved, which ranked eighth among major league second basemen despite only logging 813.2 innings. The move to second did not play up his arm, though. Story ranked 61st of 70 second basemen in average arm strength.
The Red Sox, to their credit, aren’t hiding from the potential issue.
“It’s certainly something we’ve talked about, something we’re aware of,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters Tuesday, per The Boston Globe. “Trevor’s aware of it. It’s obviously not a secret.”
The apparent hope, if Story is the everyday shortstop, is that his range and athleticism make up for anything lost by a lack of arm strength.
“One, we are optimistic that wherever he’s playing, that we’re going to be in a better position with him. Just now having built that relationship, that trust with him, being able to take an entire offseason to get in front of this. But two, his range is just so incredible. We saw, he can make throws on the run. When he has to put a little something on the ball, he can. I just think wherever we put him, he’s going to get to so many balls that it’ll all play.”
That certainly could be the case. Whether that can play for an entire season with the physical demands of playing that position every day remains to be seen.
It’s also possible Boston acquires a shortstop before the season begins. The Sox most recently have been linked to Dansby Swanson, though it’s unclear how serious they are about the Atlanta Braves former No. 1 pick. There’s also this: Swanson actually ranked lower than Story among shortstops in 2021 in arm strength and was ranked near the bottom of the league in that regard again last season.
Story seems like the most likely option at this point. Outside of Swanson, there aren’t many legitimate free agent options, unless you’re chasing lightning in a bottle with aging infielders Jose Iglesias or Elvis Andrus, who were among the worst defensive shortstops in 2022.
