As the New England Patriots prepare for what should be an incredibly emotional game Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, let’s empty out this week’s mailbag.
@jack_tweeddale
With McCourty hinting at retirement last week, who are some realistic options we could see replace him through FA/trade/draft? We don’t seem to have any other true FS on the roster.
Internally, the potential Devin McCourty replacement I’d watch is Joshuah Bledsoe. The Patriots are carrying him on the 53-man roster this season despite having excellent depth at safety, which tells me they think he can contribute down the road and don’t want another team signing him away.
Bledsoe has only played in three games this season and has been used as a matchup piece against tight ends on most of his 22 defensive snaps. But all of those came while Kyle Dugger was sidelined, so those were the snaps that were available. The 2021 sixth-round draft pick often subbed in for McCourty at free safety during training camp and had a strong summer.
Bledsoe still is a total unknown at this point, but he’s someone I’ll have my eye on as the Patriots prepare for the 2023 season.
New England also could replace McCourty by shifting Dugger or Adrian Phillips into his spot. But while Dugger and Phillips can and have played as deep safeties, both seem better suited for their current roles as versatile chess pieces who typically line up closer to the line of scrimmage.
Free agency is another option, and there are a number of quality veteran safeties who are set to hit the market in March. Among them: Cincinnati’s Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell, Buffalo’s Jordan Poyer, San Francisco’s Jimmie Ward and Green Bay’s Adrian Amos.
Some of those players will be pricey, but the Patriots are projected to have the fourth-most salary cap space in the NFL this offseason. A budget option would be bringing back Duron Harmon, who’s finishing out a one-year contract with Josh McDaniels’ Las Vegas Raiders.
As for potential draft targets, we’ll dive much deeper into those in the coming months, but two of this year’s top safety products are Alabama products Brian Branch and Jordan Battle. We all know how much Bill Belichick loves Nick Saban disciples. Georgia’s Christopher Smith is another highly touted safety who will be playing in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night.
McCourty has yet to say whether he’s retiring, but as you noted, there was a feeling of finality from him and Matthew Slater last week after what might have been their last game at Gillette Stadium. Even if the 35-year-old has lost a step in his 13th pro season, his intelligence and on-field leadership will be extremely difficult to replace.
The last time the Patriots played a game without McCourty was way back in the 2015 season.
@NFLStudy
Are the Patriots good enough to beat any of the big 3 (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) in the playoffs?
The Patriots were in position to beat the Bengals two weeks ago before Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble, so you have to say they’d have a chance against them in a rematch, even though that game would be in Cincinnati.
Maybe I’m naive, but I think the Patriots would have a puncher’s chance against the Chiefs, too, even at Arrowhead. I keep going back to the way they shut down Patrick Mahomes and that offense back in 2020 with a far less talented front seven (though more proven talent at cornerback). Remember, the Patriots trailed by just three points with nine minutes remaining in that game and might have had a chance to win if Brian Hoyer — starting in place of Cam Newton after the latter tested positive for COVID-19 — not committed two disastrous red-zone errors.
I won’t pick the Patriots to beat the Bills, though, until they prove they can do it. Buffalo has looked like the far superior team in each of their last three meetings, winning by 12, 30 and 14 points.
It’s possible for New England — which would be the No. 7 seed if it makes the playoffs — to play any of those three teams on wild-card weekend, though a back-to-back with Buffalo is the most likely matchup.
Reminder: The Patriots would earn a postseason berth if they beat the Bills this Sunday or if Miami, Pittsburgh and Tennessee all lose.
@c_neal12
Is Jakobi Meyers likely to re-sign here? Also thoughts on Dan Orlovsky as our next OC?
Meyers said that’s his preferred outcome. He’s spent his entire career in New England and, by all accounts, loves playing here.
But this also is a guy who came into the league as an undrafted free agent. He made less than $2 million over the course of his entire rookie contract. His restricted free agent tender gave him a nice bump this season (one year, $3.986 million), but this will be his first real chance to land a legitimate NFL deal. Even if Meyers would be willing to give the Patriots a slight hometown discount — and it’s unclear if he would — they’ll need to make a competitive offer to keep him around.
And they’ll have competition for his services. With most of the stacked 2019 receiver class already signing extensions, there aren’t many big-name wideouts set to hit free agency this offseason. Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the headliners of a group that also features the likes of Allen Lazard, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Mack Hollins, DJ Chark and New England’s Nelson Agholor.
I think the Patriots should re-sign Meyers, who’s been their most productive and reliable pass-catcher since midway through the Cam Newton season, while also working to add a true No. 1 wideout (DeAndre Hopkins, perhaps?). But it wouldn’t shock me if another team outbids them.
On Orlovsky, I’ve written in previous mailbags that I think he’d be an intriguing addition to New England’s staff, but I wouldn’t hire someone with zero coaching experience to be my offensive coordinator, and I doubt Belichick would, either.
@CoachGrav
Other than adding an offensive tackle this off season do you see the patriots making an big signings or trades? I think extending Jabrill Peppers should be a priority what do you think?
Offensive tackle is the clear top need for the Patriots, but they’ll have money to spend this offseason, so I would expect some notable additions at other spots, as well.
Safety and wide receiver are two I’ve already mentioned. Adding another cornerback with some length could be beneficial, too, after watching the Bengals exploit the Patriots’ lack of height at that position. And I’m interested to see what the Patriots do at linebacker with Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai under contract for 2023 but Raekwon McMillan and Mack Wilson on expiring deals.
As for Peppers, I think “priority” is a bit strong, but I like the physicality he’s brought to the Patriots’ defense this season and definitely could see him returning in ’23. He’s Pro Football Focus’s eighth-highest-graded safety entering Week 18, with Dugger ranking seventh, Phillips 16th and McCourty 35th.
@ScottishRain
Can they be expected to turn the offense around in one year while the defense is still together. 1 yr left for Uche, Dugger, and Bentley. Peppers, McCourty, J Jones free agents this year.
That’ll be one of the big questions this offseason because you’re right, there does seem to be a shrinking window for this elite defense.
Dugger and Josh Uche are playing their way into lucrative second contracts, with 2023 being the final year of their cheap rookie deals. Bentley also has outperformed his modest two-year, $6 million pact this season and will be a free agent in 2024, and the Patriots will have some big questions to answer in the secondary this offseason with McCourty seemingly bound for retirement and starting corner Jonathan Jones set to hit free agency.
I’m of the mind that the Patriots can quickly revive their sputtering offense by swapping out Matt Patricia for a proven play-caller like Bill O’Brien, which I believe is their most likely course of action once the season ends. Hire O’Brien, sign and draft some new offensive tackles and, ideally, find a way to add a wideout that defenses will fear, and the Patriots should be able to field a solid-to-good offense in 2023 — which, if the defense can maintain the level it’s played at this season, is all they really need.
@TjCarola
When will someone hold Bill accountable for sending Michael Palardy out on the field every week when he can’t punt a ball further than 35 yards? Is there no other free agent punters out there?
Jake Bailey’s tailspin and subsequent move to injured reserve was a sneakily devastating development for this Patriots team.
New England made Bailey the NFL’s highest-paid punter (at the time) before the season, and he immediately became the league’s least effective player at his position, then got hurt. His replacement, Palardy, has been even worse, and the Patriots have sorely missed Bailey’s big leg on kickoffs.
By one metric, Palardy has been the worst punter in the NFL this season, and Bailey has been the second-worst. That’s not at all what you would expect from a franchise that prides itself on creating advantages through the kicking game.
The Patriots rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ special teams DVOA despite boasting arguably the NFL’s best punt/kick returner (Marcus Jones) and a veteran kicker in Nick Folk who, while less consistent of late, is fourth in the league in field goals made.
That would be by far the lowest a Belichick-coached Patriots squad has ranked in that metric, which measures a team’s overall efficiency in a given area. They badly need Bailey, who almost certainly will be on the roster next season, to return to something resembling his All-Pro form in 2023.
And to answer your original question, is a bit surprising that Belichick hasn’t booted Palardy and brought in someone else, but capable punters/kickers aren’t easy to find midseason. The Patriots also might have been anticipating Bailey would be able to return from IR, but that no longer appears likely. After returning to practice on Dec. 21, he hasn’t been spotted on the field this week.
