Just like that, the Super Bowl is here.
A long, grueling NFL season that began all the way back in September has all but passed us by, and all that’s left is to crown a champion Sunday night in Arizona when the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs battle for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LVII.
In the end, it’s hard to argue this matchup is anything less than the two best teams in the NFL this season. Philly and KC earned the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences and have made relatively easy work of their competition to get to this point. It’s one of the best quarterback matchups we could ask for, too, with Jalen Hurts trying to complete his ascent to superstardom with a first title, while Patrick Mahomes tries to cement his legacy as an all-time great with ring No. 2.
As far as a duo whose legacy already is secured, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle did their deep dive into the Super Bowl on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast. The guys not only made their picks for the spread and total but also took a look at some intriguing prop bets for the big game.
Listen to that if you haven’t already below.
And if you don’t have time to deal with their antics, Mike and Ricky made their ATS and total picks for the game in written form below. But first, here’s how they fared in the championship round.
Finally, here are their Super Bowl LVII picks, based on consensus betting data found on the NESN Bets live odds page.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (-1.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 6:30 p.m. ET
Total: 51
Mike: Eagles, UNDER.
The handicapping for this game seems pretty simple to me. It’s hard to find anywhere that the Chiefs are decidedly better than the Eagles — except for quarterback. Hurts is fantastic, but Mahomes is on an all-time great trajectory, and if he plays to that ceiling, the Chiefs will probably win. But there are reasons to believe that won’t be the case. Mahomes won’t be 100%, dealing with an ankle sprain suffered in KC’s playoff opener. If you’re a Chiefs fan, it must feel eerily similar to Super Bowl LV when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bullied a hobbled Mahomes in a 31-9 rout. Philly has similar talent up front, and if the Chiefs struggle to block it up, this has the potential to become a rout. You have to think there’s enough talent between Mahomes and Travis Kelce alone to keep that from happening, but the matchup still favors the Eagles in both trenches. The Philadelphia offensive line might be the best in football, and that should allow Hurts to get comfortable. If that’s the case, expect a big game for A.J. Brown (a tempting 16-1 MVP pick), who has taken that offense to another level with his ability to make plays over the middle. The Chiefs, coincidentally, have struggled to guard that part of the field this season. Much has been made about Philly’s schedule, and it was historically easy. But they’ve also beaten the tar out of their two playoff opponents, so it’s not like they’ve failed to meet the moment thus far.
As for the total, the under feels like the play that best correlates with an Eagles win. Picking the Eagles means a lean toward the under given the way they’ve played this season. And if there’s even a slight chance Philly wins in something resembling a rout, then the Chiefs obviously won’t be able to generate much in the way of offense. My final prediction for Super Bowl LVII: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20
Ricky: Eagles, UNDER.
If you want to back the Chiefs solely because they have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, I get it. It’s really no different than the dynasty-era Patriots, in that the quarterback-coach combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick often covered up whatever warts surfaced elsewhere for New England. But Philadelphia has matchup advantages across the board, and the deck ultimately will be stacked too high for Kansas City.
The Eagles’ defense is elite, ranking No. 1 in pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders) behind a dominant pass rush (No. 1 on Pro Football Focus) and an excellent secondary (No. 2 coverage grade on PFF). They’re capable of blowing up the line of scrimmage — a huge problem if Mahomes’ mobility is limited by his ankle injury — thanks to a host of game-wreckers. Four players on Philadelphia (Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham) posted double-digit sack totals this season. The Chiefs’ defense, while underrated, pales in comparison, especially since Philadelphia’s offensive line (No. 1 on PFF) has the horses to neutralize whatever Kansas City throws its way, including All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, who feasted on Cincinnati’s decimated O-line in the AFC Championship Game.
Both offenses can light up the scoreboard, hence the high total. The under has hit in nine of the previous 13 Super Bowls with a total of 50 or higher, though. And this year will be no different, with Philadelphia’s defense well-positioned to slow Kansas City’s banged-up weapons and the Chiefs’ D rounding into form late in the season and into the playoffs. Expect a rock fight, relatively speaking, with the Eagles securing a 24-19 win.
