Patriots Way-Too-Early Roster Projection: Which Picks Make 53?

Eleven rookies made the cut

by

May 2, 2023

The New England Patriots selected a total of 12 players in the 2023 NFL Draft. Then, they signed three undrafted free agents, giving them a total of 89 players on their 90-man roster.

By September, New England will need to trim that roster down to 53. Which players will make the cut? Obviously, it’s far too early to accurately predict that. The Patriots will spend the next four months — from organized team activities in May straight through the preseason in August — determining which players deserve their limited number of starting jobs and roster spots.

But with the Patriots’ preliminary roster now mostly assembled, here is our best guess at what the team will look like once Week 1 arrives (rookies in bold):

QUARTERBACK (2)
In: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
Out: Trace McSorley, Malik Cunningham

Cunningham has a better shot than most undrafted rookies to crack the roster after the Patriots gave him an eye-popping $200,000 in guaranteed money. But we want to see how he performs on the field — and whether New England plans to play him at any other positions — before penciling him in.

RUNNING BACK (3)
In: Rhamondre Stevenson, James Robinson, Pierre Strong
Out: Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris, J.J. Taylor

This is an important summer for Strong, who had a few costly screw-ups on special teams and only played 51 snaps on offense as a rookie. He showed flashes of potential in that limited playing time, though. Can he take on something resembling the James White role in Year 2? The Patriots also are banking on a bounce-back season for Robinson, who’s coming off a down season in his return from a torn Achilles. There still are some notable backs languishing in free agency (Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott), so we could see another veteran addition to this group before training camp.

WIDE RECEIVER (5)
In: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas
Out: Kayshon Boutte, Raleigh Webb, Lynn Bowden, Tre Nixon

Boutte was one of the Patriots’ most intriguing draft picks. If he can recapture the form he showed in 2020 and 2021, when he looked like a future first-rounder, he could wind up being the steal of this class in Round 6. But the LSU product also is a low-floor prospect, with real concerns about his maturity and how he’ll handle tough coaching. He could blossom into a star for New England, or he could be cut before the end of training camp. We’re tempering expectations for the time being and giving the nod to Douglas, the self-proclaimed “electric” sixth-round slot who modeled his game after Marcus Jones.

TIGHT END (3)
In: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Johnny Lumpkin
Out: Matt Sokol, Scotty Washington

Who knows if Lumpkin — a 26-year-old, undrafted, blocking-focused tight end out of Louisiana-Lafayette — can play in the NFL. But it would be tough to go into the season with just two tight ends when one of them (Gesicki) is essentially a big receiver.

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE (6)
In: David Andrews, Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu, Jake Andrews, Sidy Sow, Atonio Mafi
Out: James Ferentz, Chasen Hines, Kody Russey, Bill Murray

Too many bodies here? Probably. The Patriots might not end up keeping all three of their 2023 draft picks. But for now, they all stick. If we had to cut one, it would probably be Mafi, who seemingly has less positional versatility than Jake Andrews (center/guard) and Sow (guard/tackle). New England drafting three interior players suggested it doesn’t feel great about Hines, the 2022 sixth-rounder who hardly played as a rookie.

OFFENSIVE TACKLES (4)
In: Trent Brown, Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson, Conor McDermott
Out: Yodny Cajuste, Andrew Stueber

McDermott could be on the chopping block if the Patriots feel like Sow can be a depth option at tackle, where he started 11 games at Eastern Michigan but none since 2018. Reiff and Anderson should be roster locks after the Patriots gave both upward of $4 million guaranteed for this season. Brown and Reiff project as the starters, but both are injury risks, and New England doesn’t want to be stuck signing tackles off practice squads like it had to a year ago. Stueber will be a player to watch in camp after he missed his entire rookie season with an injury. The Patriots’ choice not to select any traditional tackles was one of the biggest surprises of draft weekend.

DEFENSIVE LINE (6)
In: Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, Keion White, Daniel Ekuale
Out: Carl Davis, Sam Roberts, DaMarcus Mitchell, Jeremiah Pharms

The final spot here could come down to Ekuale versus Davis, both of whom have been solid depth players for New England. White, the Patriots’ talented second-round pick, projects as a versatile D-end in the Wise/Trey Flowers mold but also could see snaps as a super-sized stand-up edge rusher. Guy has been an important part of this defense for years, but at 33, he could be a surprise cut candidate.

LINEBACKERS (8)
In: Matthew Judon, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Marte Mapu, Chris Board, Anfernee Jennings, Raekwon McMillan
Out: Mack Wilson, Ronnie Perkins, Terez Hall, Calvin Munson, Olakunle Fatukasi, Jourdan Heilig

It will be fascinating to see how the Patriots deploy Mapu after drafting him in the third round. He’s built like a safety at 6-foot-3, 217 pounds, but New England listed him as a linebacker. He played both positions at Sacramento State, plus some nickel cornerback, and Bill Belichick said his role could change on a week-to-week basis. The Patriots have several other safety/linebacker hybrids in Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and Jabrill Peppers, but they all meet and practice with the team’s defensive backs. We’ll see if Belichick sticks Mapu with them or with the ‘backers once he’s ready to return from his pre-draft pectoral tear.

CORNERBACKS (6)
In: Jonathan Jones, Christian Gonzalez, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant, Ameer Speed
Out: Isaiah Bolden, Shaun Wade, Quandre Mosely, Rodney Randle

We couldn’t find room for both of the Patriots’ late-round corners, so Speed, who was drafted higher, gets the nod for now. Bryant could be on the chopping block with Marcus and/or Jonathan Jones looking like the favorites to man the slot, but he still provides value with his positional versatility. One question here: Will first-round pick Gonzalez be a Day 1 starter, or will New England ease him in?

SAFETIES (5)
In: Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills, Joshuah Bledsoe
Out: Cody Davis, Brad Hawkins

Mills reportedly plans to move to safety after starting at outside corner for the last two seasons. Bledsoe, who frequently subbed in for Devin McCourty in practice last summer, sticks in this projection, but his fate could hinge on the Patriots’ plan for Mapu. Davis, a 33-year-old core special teamer, is a candidate for the physically unable to perform list as he works his way back from a season-ending knee injury.

SPECIALISTS (5)
In: K Chad Ryland, P Bryce Baringer, LS Joe Cardona, ST Matthew Slater, ST Brenden Schooler
Out: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman, LS Tucker Addington

Changing of the guard here on special teams. Ryland will be expected to beat out the veteran Folk after the Patriots traded up to make him the highest-drafted kicker/punter of the Belichick era (Round 4, No. 112 overall). Baringer isn’t a roster lock as a sixth-round pick, but he was the best punter in this draft. We like his odds of outperforming free agent pickup Waitman. Cardona is locked in after signing a lucrative new contract (by long snapper standards) and Slater and Schooler are two of the NFL’s best gunners.

Thumbnail photo via Rich Storry/USA TODAY Sports Images
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