Let's take a look at our team stats to help us assess which defenses you want to avoid, whether you're a running back or involved in the passing equation. Then, we'll use our up-to-the-minute stats to make some individual recommendations.
Each week, we put out our index of key stats: red zone possessions allowed per game, yards allowed per rush, yards per pass (including sack yards), sack percentage, rushing TDs allowed per game and passing scores allowed per game. Let's mine that data.
The best overall defenses (those to avoid) are (in order):
Broncos, Redskins, Eagles, Packers and Vikings.
Defenses top 10 in both fewest yards allowed per pass and fewest TD passes allowed per game (and thus poor matchups for QBs and WRs):
Colts, Jets, Broncos, Saints, Patriots and Bills.
Best run defenses (top 10 in YPR and rushing TDs allowed per game):
Broncos, Eagles, Packers, Cardinals, Ravens and Jaguars.
Overall fantasy friendliest defenses (in order):
Rams, Browns, Bucs, Lions, Chiefs and Titans. The Chargers jumped up six spots to 26th, thanks to the anemic Chiefs.
Loosest pass defenses (bottom 10 in both YPA allowed and TD passes allowed per game):
Bucs, Rams, Lions, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. Note the Ravens are awfully close to qualifying and should definitely no longer be feared by those starting receivers and QBs against them.
Charmin-soft run defenses:
Browns, Raiders, Texans, Bills. That's it. No other team is bottom 10 in both YPR and rushing TDs per game.
Why are the Jaguars 25th overall and not closer to middling considering they have a bottom 10 pass defense but top 10 rush defense? It's not just one extra passing category (sack percentage). Third-down percentage is essentially a passing stat as teams throw on about 80 percent of third downs and at least half the time even on third and one
Another key observation: The Broncos have gone from 23rd in sack percentage in 2008 to first with no major player changes. That's proof that scheme means as least as much as personnel on defense. Denver is blitzing very aggressively, especially into the "A" gap between the center and guard.
Now for some individual recommendations.
Buy
Mike Bell, RB, Saints: He's been stuffed five times in 72 carries, tied for seventh best rate. Pierre Thomas is tied for 11th with 4/56 and was among the league leaders in being most difficult to tackle for a loss or no gain in 2008. He's no doubt deserving of goal-line work. But Bell is preferred by Sean Payton and is unlikely to spit the bit.
Dolphins goal-line running game: Lousaka Polite is a league best 7-for-7 converting on third and less than three. Ricky Williams is 4-for-4 and Ronnie Brown 6-for-7. The Wildcat is the best short-yardage rushing offense ever even if teams start to catch on during regular downs. The secret: keying on the blocking and not trying to figure out who has the ball.
Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Why does Rice (who just turned 23) only have 48 targets? Last week's full plate is likely a sign of things to come. Percy Harvin remained the primary focus on third downs, however. And he's in line for every-down action with Bernard Berrian nursing a sore hammy. Harvin will get a few big rushing plays this year out of gadget sets.
Jets running backs: Leon Washington is done with the broken leg. But Shonn Greene is a must add with the Jets leading the NFL now with 31 big-play (10-plus-yard) rushes. Though I never thought I'd say it: hold Thomas Jones, too.
YAC QBs: Is yards after catch something the QB or the receiver controls? Those arguing the former find support on the QB YAC leaderboard: Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre and Aaron Rogers (in order).
Hold
Efficient tight ends: Heath Miller has caught 40 of 46 passes thrown in his direction. Dallas Clark is 38 of 47. There never are any No. 1 wide receivers on these efficiency lists because they are the ones who get the ball flung in their general direction when the QB is trying to evade a blitzer who has gotten through cleanly.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: The Falcons are 28th in big-play rushes. Don't tell me it's due to that 370-carry nonsense or I'll scream. As if 368 carries last year would have given him the "all clear."
Sell
Chargers running game: San Diego is last in the NFL with only eight rushes of 10-or-more yards. This is good news for those invested in San Diego's passing game.
Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: He's lost four fumbles and is near the top of a category that is dominated by QBs, not guys paid to protect the football. Slaton is also the league leader in times stuffed – 21. He'll be replaced this offseason, guaranteed.
