Patriots Open As Touchdown Favorites Over Ravens For Latest Playoff Matchup

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January 5, 2015

The NFL playoffs continue with the divisional round due up this weekend. The AFC side of the bracket features the New England Patriots hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, and the Denver Broncos hosting the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The winners will face each other in the AFC Championship Game on Jan. 18.

New England opened as a touchdown favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. This game is a rematch of the 2013 AFC Championship Game, which Baltimore won outright as an eight-point underdog at Gillette Stadium. The total came in under in a 28-13 result.

New England was 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread at home in 2014. Baltimore was 4-4 SU and ATS on the road. Over the last two seasons, the Patriots are 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS when favored at home by at least a touchdown. The Ravens haven’t been a road dog of a touchdown or more since 2013. In that season, they were 2-2 SU and ATS in such situations. Prior to that, Baltimore was 1-25 SU as a road underdog of at least a touchdown.

The total is set at 48.5 points on the NFL betting lines for this week. New England went over in nine games in 2014, but has gone under in five of its last six games. Baltimore went under in nine games in 2014, including its last four regular season games. The total was a push in Baltimore’s playoff win over Pittsburgh.

Denver — down to fourth on the odds to win the Super Bowl — then opened as a touchdown favorite over Indianapolis at the sportsbooks. These two faced off in Week 1, with Denver winning 31-24. The Broncos failed to cover the 8.5-point spread, but the game went over on the total.

Denver was 8-0 SU and 4-4 ATS at home in 2014. Indianapolis was 5-3 SU and ATS on the road in 2014. Over the last two seasons, the Broncos are 14-1 SU and 8-7 ATS when favored at home by at least a touchdown according to the OddsShark NFL Database. Over the last two seasons, the Colts are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS when installed as a road underdog of at least a touchdown.

The total is set at 53 points. The point total went over for Denver in 10 games in 2014, including the last two. The point total went over for Indianapolis in nine 2014 regular season games, but under in their final four. The total also went under in the Colts’ playoff win over Cincinnati.

Thumbnail photo via Evan Habeeb/USA TODAY Sports

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