If the NFL didn’t dominate enough of your life already, we’ve got some good news: the NFL on Saturday returns this week.
The Week 15 slate gives fans games on four days of the week, which might seem like overkill. And probably it is overkill. But it beats holiday shopping or doing things around the house, which means your Thursday night, Saturday night, Sunday and Monday night plans are all sewn up for the next week.
With that in mind, let’s get to the Week 15 against-the-spread picks from NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian, shall we?
Here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 8-8 (100-101-3 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 11-5 (109-92-3)
Andre Khatchaturian: 6-10 (109-92-3)
And here are their Week 15 picks with lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
THURSDAY, DEC. 13
Los Angeles Chargers at (-3.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Chiefs. I think the Chargers are probably better overall, but it’s a tough spot with injuries to their top two running backs. And I don’t know how much Eric Berry has left in the tank but getting him back should give the KC defense a much-needed jolt.
Andre: Chargers. The Chargers are banged up at running back, but Justin Jackson averages 5.1 yards per carry and the Chiefs allow the second-most yards per play on the ground. In a game with crappy weather, I trust the better rushing attack and the less mistake-prone quarterback. Pat Mahomes has 11 interceptions in the last nine games and Philip Rivers hasn’t thrown a pick in three straight.
Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City is 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 divisional games. The Chiefs also own a nine-game winning streak against the Chargers, during which K.C. is 7-2 ATS. Combine that information with this game being played on a Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium, and it requires some serious stones to pick against the Chiefs.
SATURDAY, DEC. 15
(-6) Houston Texans at New York Jets, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Jets. New York got after the quarterback last week, sacking Josh Allen three times with 10 quarterback hits. Can Houston, who allowed the Colts to sack DeShaun Watson five times last week, block the Jets’ front? I’m skeptical.
Andre: Texans. The Jets are 30th in yards per play differential. The Texans haven’t turned the ball over in six of their last seven games and are tied for fourth in turnover differential. Sam Darnold still has more interceptions than touchdowns and that doesn’t bode well against a Houston team that’s fifth in takeaways.
Ricky: Jets. The Texans tasted defeat last week for the first time since suffering three straight losses to open the season. How will they handle the setback? The Jets present an appetizing matchup given their offensive inconsistency, but this marks Houston’s first road game in four weeks and the forecast in East Rutherford calls for some precipitation. Could be a weird one.
Cleveland Browns at (-3) Denver Broncos, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. The Browns have one road win with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and that came against a hapless Bengals team in Cincinnati. Things will be a little different against a Broncos team that’s proved itself to be a plucky bunch all season.
Andre: Broncos. In a game with two mistake-prone quarterbacks and turnover-hungry defenses, the running game will prevail. Cleveland allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game and the Broncos are an excellent running team, averaging more than five yards per carry.
Ricky: Broncos. This small line seems like an overreaction to Cleveland winning three of four against questionable opponents (Falcons, Bengals, Panthers) and Denver not showing up on the road last week against San Francisco. Don’t fall for it. The Broncos will receive a bounce-back effort from their ground game en route to taking care of business in the Mile High City.
SUNDAY, DEC. 16
Arizona Cardinals at (-8.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Look at the teams Atlanta has played during its five-game losing streak: Cleveland, Dallas, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay. Those are all teams that are in the playoff hunt or were playing with a renewed sense of purpose. The Cardinals are neither.
Andre: Falcons. Arizona hasn’t cracked the 30-point mark all year and it’s almost Christmas. The Falcons and Cardinals rank 31st and 32nd, respectively, in yards per rush attempt, so this game will go to the team with the better QB. Matt Ryan has 28 touchdowns and six picks this season and is on pace to set a career-high in completion percentage.
Ricky: Cardinals. This is a perfect opportunity for Atlanta to get its first win since Week 9, but the spread seems awfully high in spite of Arizona’s own issues. The Falcons have lost five straight, including four games by double digits. Atlanta is 3-10 ATS overall, the worst mark in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys at (-3) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. The injury to offensive lineman Zack Martin injury could really hurt the Cowboys, who already were facing a tough matchup against Indy’s stout run defense. And as long as the Colts can protect Andrew Luck, it’s hard to see Dallas’ defense slowing him and T.Y. Hilton down.
Andre: Cowboys. The Cowboys recently beat the Saints, who have one of the best rush defenses in football and Ezekiel Elliott had no problem running on them. Indianapolis is 24th in rushing yards per game and they go up against a Dallas defense that allows just 3.6 yards per carry. This might be a high-volume game for Luck, who is 1-6 when throwing the ball 40-plus times this year.
Ricky: Colts. Indianapolis owns the NFL’s fourth-best run defense, according to Pro Football Focus, which means it’ll be difficult for Dallas to continue leaning so heavily on Elliott. Meanwhile, the Colts’ offense, which ranks No. 1 in third-down conversion percentage at home (No. 2 overall), should be able to sustain drives and exploit the Cowboys’ secondary, provided Indianapolis’ offensive line continues to keep Andrew Luck upright (only the Saints have surrendered fewer sacks this season).
Detroit Lions at (-2.5) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. The Lions won and covered last week on the road with 218 total yards of offense. How does that even happen? They won’t be as lucky this week, though. Despite the hiccup last week, Josh Allen continues to look good, and again, it’s hard to have confidence in a banged-up Detroit offense doing much of anything outside in Buffalo in December.
Andre: Bills. Buffalo quarterbacks have combined for 20 interceptions this season — second-most in the NFL. Last year, Tyrod Taylor threw just four picks and the team made the playoffs. If this team didn’t shoot themselves in the leg with turnovers so often, maybe they’d be in the hunt again this year. Fortunately for them, the Lions only have six picks this year. Matt Stafford is playing some bad football with just four touchdowns and five picks over his last six games and those struggles will continue against Buffalo’s stifling defense.
Ricky: Bills. Buffalo’s defense poses a big challenge, especially at home, and that should be enough for the Bills to squeak by against the Lions, who’ve scored more than 20 points in a game only once since Week 7.
Green Bay Packers at (-5.5) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. The Packers’ offense line is hurting — Bryan Bulaga didn’t practice Wednesday — which figures to be a slight issue against the Bears’ ferocious front. The Packers might be 17-4 against the Bears in Aaron Rodgers’ career, but this just feels like Chicago’s time.
Andre: Bears. Green Bay is too one-dimensional when it comes to wide receivers. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers succeeding against a defense that’s third in yards allowed per pass attempt. It doesn’t help that he’ll be running for his life most of the game against the Bears’ pass rush, which is fourth in sacks.
Ricky: Packers. Wouldn’t it be fitting if the Packers’ first road win of the season comes in their first road game since firing Mike McCarthy? Take the points.
Miami Dolphins at (-7) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Ryan Tannehill is hobbled, and Xavien Howard might be down again. The latter is obviously more important, especially trying to slow down the Vikings’ assortment of weapons. Minnesota also fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo this week, so maybe it will get a boost, especially returning home.
Andre: Dolphins. Minnesota will finally be able to establish a run, take some pressure off Kirk Cousins and win the game SU, but seven points is a lot. Ryan Tannehill has eight touchdowns and one pick since his return from injury. He’s completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and he has a ton of weapons on offense. The Dolphins defense is second in the NFL in interceptions.
Ricky: Vikings. The Dolphins are a real pain, huh? Everything suggests they shouldn’t be that good, yet they’re 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS. That said, Miami has lost its last five road games by an average of 16.4 points. This smells of a letdown after last week’s wild win over New England.
Oakland Raiders at (-3) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. My grand-pappy once told me that when you have two awful teams playing in a game that you can buy tickets to for, like, 20 bucks, then you take the points. He was very specific about things.
Andre: Raiders. Derek Carr has played excellent football as of late. He has 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last eight games. If he got some help from his offensive line and his defense, maybe the Raiders would be in the playoff hunt. Fortunately for Carr, the Bengals are atrocious.
Ricky: Raiders. The Bengals have lost five straight, including three games by at least 14 points. Meanwhile, Derek Carr actually played well the last two weeks against the Steelers and Chiefs (five touchdowns and no interceptions). If you want to lay points with the Bengals, whose defense is a sieve, then be my guest. I just wouldn’t recommend it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-8) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. It feels like the Bucs are just what the doctor would order for the Ravens, They’re a team that’s sloppy with the football (minus-17 turnover differential!), and they can’t stop the run. Both of those things fall right into the hands of the Ravens, especially at home.
Andre: Ravens. Tampa leads the league in giveaways and they go up against a Baltimore defense that doesn’t necessarily force turnovers, but they allow the fewest yards per play. Since Lamar Jackson took over starter, the Ravens lead the league in rush attempts with 184 — 50 attempts more than Seattle, who has the second-most in that span. Tampa has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns this year and they allow nearly five yards per carry.
Ricky: Bucs. Lamar Jackson can cause a whole bunch of problems for opposing defenses, especially units as bad as Tampa Bay’s. But there’s still a gimmicky feel to Baltimore’s offense with him at the helm, and the potential for rookie mistakes makes this spread a bit too large. The Ravens just are far more appealing as underdogs or slight favorites.
Tennessee Titans at (-2.5) New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. The Giants are 1-4-1 against the spread at home this season, and now they’re giving points? The Giants have the best player on the field in Saquon Barkley, but the Titans are still the better team with something at stake.
Andre: Giants. The Giants have won four of their last five and it easily could’ve been five in a row had they not blown a 19-3 lead against Philadelphia in Week 12. Saquon Barkley is averaging nearly seven yards per carry over the last four games and that’s really helped open the game up for Eli Manning, who has 10 touchdowns and two picks over the last five games. More importantly, Barkley is helping alleviate pressure on Manning. When Manning throws the ball 35 times or less, he is 5-0 and 0-8 otherwise.
Ricky: Giants. The Titans are coming off back-to-back wins, including a 21-point beatdown of the Jaguars last Thursday night, which almost certainly means they’ll flop this week on the road. The Giants finally are playing on par with their overall talent level and seem to be embracing a spoiler role.
Washington Redskins at (-7) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. What the hell are we doing with our lives?
Andre: Jaguars. There was a time Washington had one of the best yards per play differentials in the league. Since Week 5, they are 31st. Jacksonville isn’t much better, but the Redskins’ quarterback situation is atrocious. Cody Kessler is at least somewhat accurate and doesn’t make mistakes with just one pick in 97 pass attempts.
Ricky: Jaguars. The last time Josh Johnson started at quarterback in the NFL, he was throwing passes to Kellen Winslow Jr. Now, more than seven years later, he’s getting the nod for Washington mere weeks after being protected by the San Diego Fleet of the Alliance of American Football league. What the hell is happening here?
(-5) Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. Revenge game! Seattle pasted San Fran two weeks ago, as the 49ers turned it over three times (one was a pick-six), while also giving up an 84-yard kickoff return. Those are fixable issues, and if the Niners button things up just a little, they could hang with the Seahawks here.
Andre: Seahawks. The 49ers actually have a positive yards per play differential, ahead of teams like the Cowboys, Texans, Seahawks and Patriots. Their issue has been their league-worst minus-21 turnover differential. I don’t see Nick Mullens and crew having a clean game against a Seahawks defense that’s 8th in takeaways and 2nd in turnover differential.
Ricky: Seahawks. Seattle is rolling right now, having won four in a row, and there’s no reason to believe San Francisco will provide much resistance this Sunday. Not only do the Seahawks typically finish strong in December/January. They’ve also won nine straight against the 49ers, going 7-2-1 ATS in those games.
(-1.5) New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. New England has been weirdly inefficient as big road favorites this season (see: Detroit, Tennessee, Miami), but they remain profitable when small road favorites. When the Patriots are favored by a touchdown or less since the start of 2016, they’re 6-1 straight-up and ATS. Also, they own Pittsburgh.
Andre: Steelers. I picked the Patriots in this week’s electric episode of “The Spread,” but Ricky Doyle is a convincing man. He made cogent arguments and I changed my mind. The key to life is having an open mind. Don’t be stubborn. Listen to other people and you just might be enlightened. Ricky, take it away.
Ricky: Steelers. The Patriots usually play well after a loss (16-4 ATS in their last 20 such games) and against the Steelers (7-1 SU in the teams’ last eight head-to-head matchups), but this hasn’t been an ordinary season for New England, which has a negative yards-per-play differential (minus-0.8) on the road. The Steelers’ pass rush (No. 1 in sacks and sack percentage) will disrupt the pocket around Tom Brady and prevent the Patriots’ offense from finding a rhythm, especially since Pittsburgh has allowed the second-fewest catches and receiving yards to running backs this season.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-10.5) Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Rams. So, Carson Wentz is hurt again. Last year, that didn’t matter for the Eagles, but the bigger issue remains the Eagles’ defense, particularly the secondary, where three of the Eagles’ five Week 1 starters are hurt. Not what you want against a ticked-off Rams offense.
Andre: Rams. The Rams are third in turnover differential, while the Eagles are 23rd. Dallas put up 576 total yards against Philly and they only scored 29 points. The Rams are going to be able to finish those drives against the Eagles, who allow more than six yards per play.
Ricky: Rams. Maybe Nick Foles will step into the starting lineup and give the Eagles a shot in the arm. The more likely scenario, however, is the Rams roll behind strong efforts from Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, who disappointed many fantasy owners last week in Chicago.
MONDAY, DEC. 17
(-6) New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Gonna be a chilly one in Charlotte, and the Saints are just 4-7 (3-3 since 2010) when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or below. Even if it slows them down just a bit, that should be enough to help Carolina keep it close.
Andre: Panthers. The Panthers have lost five in a row, but four of those games were on the road. Carolina is 5-1 at home and Cam Newton has 10 touchdowns, three picks and has only been sacked seven times at Bank of America Stadium. The Saints ultimately win, but Carolina will keep it close. Their last four losses have been within a score.
Ricky: Saints. Can you really trust Cam Newton to make a big throw right now? He’ll have to step up at some point, with the Saints owning the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, but the Panthers quarterback clearly is hurt. Maybe the Panthers can dink and dunk their way down the field using Christian McCaffrey, but the Saints are the league’s third-best tackling team, per Pro Football Focus, making that a less-than-ideal way to operate offensively.
