Bills-Titans Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Tuesday Night Game

We've got Tuesday night football for the first time in a decade

by Mike Cole

October 13, 2020

For the first time in a decade, the NFL is about to take over Tuesday night.

Barring a last-second COVID-19 setback (which can’t completely be ruled out at this point), the Tennessee Titans will play their first game in 16 days when they host the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday night.

That’s right: Tuesday night football. It’s the first time the week’s second day has seen an NFL game since 2010, when the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles were postponed two days due to snow. The Eagles won that game, a contest that featured a quarterback showdown between Michael Vick and the great Joe Webb.

Here’s your betting preview for Tuesday night’s Bills vs. Titans game:

(-3.5) Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, 7 p.m. ET
Total:
51.5

BETTING TRENDS
Let’s start with Tuesday night football. As mentioned, this is the first Tuesday game since 2010. The Webb-led Vikings pulled a shocking upset, knocking off the 10-4 Eagles with a 24-14 win — as staggering 14.5-point underdogs. The total went under the 44.5 mark by a touchdown amid cold, breezy Philly weather.

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Titans. Not only has it been two-plus weeks since Mike Vrabel’s team last played. They also haven’t been able to get into the facility for much of that time.

We only can go off what we know, though, and we know the Titans are getting points at home. That’s been a pretty valuable proposition for Tennessee since Vrabel took over. The Titans are 4-3 against the spread when getting points at home. If you’re leaning toward Tennessee, you might want to hit the money line, as the Titans won all four of those games they covered.

Vrabel has been a pretty good underdog bet since taking over in 2018. Tennessee is 11-8 ATS and 10-9 straight-up as a betting underdog.

The Bills, meanwhile, are looking to keep pace atop the AFC East. Buffalo has owned the series with the Titans, winning — and covering — its last three games vs. Tennessee. Those games have typically been defensive struggles — no surprise given the Bills’ defensive prowess in recent years — as all three recent contests have gone under the total.

Buffalo has been especially profitable as a favorite. The Bills have been favored 20 times since late-October of 2017. They’ve won 17 of those 20 games, covering 12 times. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 10-2 straight-up when favored by 3.5 points or fewer, covering in all but four of those games.

PROPS
First-half line, total:
Buffalo -1.5, 26.5

First touchdown scorer:
Derrick Henry +500
Devin Singletary +950
Josh Allen +800
Stefon Diggs +1050
AJ Brown +1000

Passing yards:
Ryan Tannehill over/under 239.5
Josh Allen over/under 295.5

Rushing yards:
Derrick Henry over/under 99.5
Devin Singletary over/under 55.5

Receiving:
Stefon Diggs over/under 4.5 receptions, over/under 78.5 yards
AJ Brown over/under 4.5 receptions, over/under 58.5 yards
Jonnu Smith over/under 4.5 receptions, over/under 51.5 yards

PICK
Buffalo -3.5

It’s a somewhat chalky pick — roughly 60 percent of the spread bets are on Buffalo, per Sports Insights — but there are just too many variables going against the Titans.

This also is hard to believe, but Josh Allen looks like a legitimate MVP candidate. He’ll be the best player on the field Tuesday night, and Buffalo is good enough on both sides of the ball to keep Tennessee off-balance.

Thumbnail photo via Jim Brown/USA TODAY Sports Images

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