NFL MVP Odds: Updated Prices, Players With Best Value After Four Weeks

There's been quite a bit of movement with MVP odds since Week 1

by Sean T. McGuire

October 8, 2020

The 2020 NFL season has concluded its first quarter, and the league’s MVP race has learned some early-season favorites.

We took a look at those with the best odds to win the NFL MVP Award before the season started (here’s a refresher), and figured it was only right to check in on who’s in the running for the award after four weeks.

We’ve included both those who have the best prices to win the award, along with some non-favorites who present good value, with all odds per consensus data. We’ve also included each player’s odds before the season started in parenthesis.

Russell Wilson +160 (+800)
Patrick Mahomes +250 (+400)
Aaron Rodgers +600 (+3000)
Lamar Jackson +1200 (+700)
Josh Allen +1400 (+5000)
Tom Brady +1600 (+1600)
Kyler Murray +2000 (+2500)
Ben Roethlisberger +2200 (+4000)
Dak Prescott +2200 (+1400)
Cam Newton +2500 (+3000)
Derrick Henry +2500 (+5000)
Deshaun Watson +5000 (+2500)
Matthew Stafford +5000 (+4000)
Baker Mayfield +6000 (+4000)
Drew Brees +6000 (+2500)

And here are some players who we believe present the best value. Of note, we went with Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers before the season started.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
OK, so the 1-3 Cowboys certainly have not looked good through the first four games of the season. Prescott, though, has been otherworldly in his individual performances, and his odds of +2200 present good value. The Cowboys quarterback leads the NFL in passing yards (1,690) with a 68.2% completion rate and 12 total touchdowns (nine passing), but his MVP odds have worsened after four games. If the Cowboys’ defense can hold teams to even 28 points per game (currently allowing worst in NFL, 35.5), Prescott and the offense could rack up wins.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Newton has had an impressive start to his first year in New England, and his production provides some value with 25-to-1 odds, a bit better than they were entering the season (30-to-1). Newton has looked like the dual-threat QB fans grew used to seeing, helping the Pats to a win with his legs Week 1 and impressing with his arm during a one-possession loss to Seattle Seahawks. Newton missing Week 4 after testing positive for COVID-19 may depict his impact even more, as backups Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham combine for four turnovers in the loss.

While neither player’s team has a record above .500, there’s plenty of time for that aspect to change. And team wins tend to be very influential in MVP honors.

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