Buccaneers-Lions Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Saturday Afternoon Game

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping this year’s Week 16 Saturday matchup goes a little better than last.

The Bucs will spend their day after Christmas in Detroit where they take on the Lions as part of the NFL’s Saturday triple-header.

Tampa occupied a similar spot on the schedule a year ago, and things did not go well with Jameis Winston throwing four interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown, in a loss to Houston.

With Tom Brady now under center, things should look a little different this year.

Here’s a betting preview for Bucs-Lions.

(-9.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Total: 54

BETTING TRENDS

The 9-5 Bucs actually have been better on the road this season, going 5-2 away from Raymond James Stadium. They’re 7-7 against the spread overall but just 3-4 ATS on the road. In a big-time “for what it’s worth” spot, Tampa Bay is just 1-4 ATS on the road within the conference. This isn’t a trend, per se, but this is just the second time since 2008 the Bucs have been road favorite of seven or more. The first time was earlier this season when Tampa Bay barely survived the New York Giant as 13-point favorites on “Thursday Night Football.” Overall, Tampa Bay is 4-1 straightup and 2-2 ATS as road favorites this season.

It’s a weird week for the Lions, who don’t have anything to play for aside from pride — heh, get it? Detroit, at 5-9, obviously won’t make the playoffs. While 6-8 ATS for the year, the Lions have been a terrible bet at home, winning just one of six games and covering just twice. Believe it or not, there are no trends for teams who are playing without their head coach because of a global pandemic. That’s what Detroit faces, though, with interim head man Derrell Bevell having to sit out Saturday for COVID procedure reasons. The Lions have fared fairly well in this situation over the last two seasons. Detroit has caught seven points or more four times since the start of the 2019 season; the Lions lost all four of those games, but they covered three of them.

PROPS

First-half line, total
Tampa Bay -6.5, 27.5

First touchdown scorer (per DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leonard Fournette +700
Mike Evans +800
Rob Gronkowski +1000
Antonio Brown +1000
D’Andre Swift +1050
Marvin Jones +1100

Passing yards (per BetMGM)
Tom Brady over/under 310.5 yards
Matthew Stafford over/under 268.5 yards

Rushing yards (per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Leonard Fournette over/under 60.5 yards
D’Andre Swift over/under 44.5 yards

Receiving yards (FanDuel)
Marvin Jones over/under 65.5 yards
Antonio Brown over/under 58.5 yards
Rob Gronkowski over/under 32.5 yards

PICK
Over 54 points

The strength of Tampa Bay’s defense is its run defense. That’s great and all, but the Lions can’t run the ball, so that’s not gonna do the Bucs much good here. To be honest, Tampa Bay’s defense has been suspect at best across the board over the last five weeks. The passing defense has been the biggest issue, though. The Bucs are 26th in the NFL in success rate vs. the pass in that time. They’ve been torched by some pretty good offenses, such as the Rams, Chiefs and Falcons (good-ish). No one is going to mistake Matthew Stafford for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Detroit’s offense has actually been pretty good despite injuries. Since being shut out in Carolina in Week 11, the Lions are averaging 27 points per game.

It’s the Lions’ defense that has kept them from pulling a late-season miracle push to the playoffs, allowing an average of 30 points per game since November began. To say they’ll struggle to slow down Tom Brady, who has a 108.4 career passer rating in domes, is a slight understatement.