You’ve gotta be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good.
We finally found our second winning week of the season in Week 12, hitting on the best-bet parlay.
A big reason for that was getting the right number in the right situation on an UNDER play between the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos. We liked that pick late last week — that’s why it was on the ticket — but we liked it even more by Saturday night into Sunday when it became clear the Broncos wouldn’t have an actual quarterback at their disposal.
Now, we try to build on last week’s win with another strong showing. Here’s the Week 13 best-bet parlay.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans OVER 53.5 points
In six of their 11 games this season, the Titans and their opponents have combined for more than 53 points. In nine games, they’ve combined for at least 51. The Titans have one of the NFL’s best offenses and a defense that can get picked apart at times. Tennessee certainly should get its chances to score this week against a Browns defense that a) struggles to stop the run and b) is missing two of its best defensive backs in Denzel Ward and Ronnie Harrison. The ceiling for Cleveland’s offense is higher than it has shown in recent weeks. Remember, this team scored at least 32 points in five of six games earlier in the season. Granted, that was with Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup, but the Browns also have had some rough weather games in the last month. It won’t be balmy in Nashville this weekend (high of 40), but it shouldn’t affect the offenses, either.
(-1) New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Road favorites took a beating last week, but we’re ready to ignore that and focus on arguably the most lopsided matchup of Week 13: Patriots head coach Bill Belichick vs. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn. Belichick’s success against rookie quarterbacks is well-documented. So there’s that. But we’ve also seen more than enough from Lynn to think he’ll fumble away the clear and very real advantages his team has in overall roster talent. The Patriots are still scratching and clawing for a playoff spot, while Lynn admitted this week he essentially told his team their season is over. That’s encouraging. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Patriots roll here, no matter who’s under center.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 47.5 points
This is a weird game with the two teams playing in Arizona because the 49ers basically were kicked out of their stadium by the local government. So maybe there’s a little disjointedness on the offensive side for both teams to start this Monday night game. The 49ers’ defense is also starting to look pretty good. In just the last two weeks, San Fran has forced six turnovers on the road against the Saints and Rams. They “held” the Saints to 27 points, a number that probably would have been lower if not for four 49ers turnovers. Just last week, they stopped the Rams in their tracks, allowing just over 300 yards and 20 points en route to a potentially season-saving win. A big reason for their success was the return of Richard Sherman, who was incredible. Save for the Seattle game, Buffalo’s offense has slowed some since its early-season explosion. This could be a bit of a rock fight.
Payout: $100 to win $596
Record: 2-10 (up $376)