NFL Week 14 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Could Hinge On Old-School Ravens-Browns Tilt
Let's get a win
The season of giving is here, and we’re hoping to give a big ol’ payday with our weekly best-bet parlay.
We couldn’t have been more right about the total in last week’s Browns-Titans game, and we were all over the Patriots’ rout in LA. The 49ers’ defense, unfortunately, let us down against Buffalo as that game went over the total and killed the parlay Monday night.
Alas. We’re back at it here in Week 14, looking to cash in before finishing the holiday shopping.
Here’s this week’s best-bet parlay.
(-6.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings
This feels like a great spot for the Bucs to get back on track as it enters a very winnable stretch of games. Tom Brady-led teams have been fantastic out of the break, going 14-4 when the quarterback was in New England. But it’s the matchup that really makes Tampa Bay worth a look here. Offensively, Brady and the Bucs have (somewhat questionably) wanted to throw the ball deep with varying levels of success. However, that might be a good move this week against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense ranks 28th in explosive passing plays allowed while generating virtually nothing in QB pressure. Brady should be able to stand back there, allow his receivers to get open and hit on some big plays. Defensively, the Bucs’ biggest strength is their run defense, which is the top-ranked unit vs. the run on an EPA per play basis. That’s huge when you’ve got Dalvin Cook coming to town. Tampa also loves to blitz, which has been an issue for Kirk Cousins, who is barely completing half of his passes with a 71 passer rating when the extra rushers are coming.
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Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers OVER 49 points
The Falcons and Chargers are both bad, but it’s not for a lack of offensive firepower. The quest to go over does get hurt a bit with Falcons wideout Julio Jones out, but Calvin Ridley has been a beast (19 catches, 296 yards, three touchdowns) in the three games Jones already has missed. With a big offensive day, Atlanta would just become the latest team to light up LA’s defense, which ranks 27th in points allowed and has allowed an average of 32 points in their last nine games. Until recently, LA’s offense had been rolling along nicely, scoring at least 26 points in four of their first five games out of their Week 6 bye. Both teams are among the NFL’s higher-paced offenses, and as we saw last week in LA’s case, special teams could lead to points. The Chargers were abused by the Patriots, who scored multiple touchdowns in the kicking game, and Atlanta’s special teams ranks 30th in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns UNDER 47 points
This has been bet up from an opening of 45.5, so we like getting in with the under here even more. The Baltimore defense is getting healthy, having allowed an average of 18 points over the last two games. Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams are back, and the run defense instantly looks better. Baltimore is also expected to have linebacker Matthew Judon back this week, which also should help slow down that Browns rushing attack. These teams are among the bottom fifth in the league in terms of plays per game in large part because of their desires to run the football. Gotta imagine both will try to do the same Monday night and keep the clock moving. Oh, and there’s also this: Early forecasts for Monday call for a cold, windy night.
Payout: $100 to win $596
Record: 2-11 (up $276)
