Packers-Rams Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For NFC Divisional Round
Green Bay enters as a 6.5-point favorite
The league’s best scoring offense will go up against the league’s best scoring defense Saturday afternoon in what’s sure to be an entertaining matchup.
The top-seeded Green Bay Packers make their 2020 postseason debut as the No. 6 Los Angeles Rams travel to Lambeau Field for a NFC Divisional Round game. The winner will play either the No. 2 New Orleans Saints or No. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC Championship.
The 11-6 Rams earned an upset win over the No. 3 Seattle Seahawks in the league’s Super Wild Card Weekend. The 13-3 Packers, of course, had a first-round bye after claiming the conference’s No. 1 seed.
Here?s our betting preview for Rams at Packers, with lines and totals via consensus data and props provided by DraftKings SportsBook.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Total: 45.5
BETTING TRENDS
Green Bay enters the contest having compiled a 10-6 record against the spread during the regular season. The Packers had identical 5-3 ATS splits in home and away games. Green Bay did beat the total in nine of 16 regular season games this season, but were a modest 4-4 ATS at Lambeau Field.
The Rams clearly showed just how much they were led by their defense based on the fact LA lost against the total in 12 of 16 games. Those four wins, however, all came on the road, as LA did not hit the over in a single home game this season. The Rams measured in at 9-7 ATS during the regular season with a .500 clip on the road.
Most recently, however, the Rams did cover in their first postseason game, as Seattle entered as a three-point home favorite. LA beat the total of 42 last week, too. It was the fifth time the Rams hit the over in an away game this season.
PROPS
First-half line, total
Green Bay -4.5, 23.5
First touchdown scorer
Davante Adams +500
Aaron Jones +650
Cam Akers +700
Robert Tonyan +1000
Robert Woods +1200
Cooper Kupp +1300
Allen Lazard +1800
Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1800
Passing yards
Aaron Rodgers over/under 259.5
Rushing yards
Cam Akers over/under 70.5
Aaron Jones over/under 68.5
Jamaal Williams over/under 19.5
Malcolm Brown over/under 12.5
Receiving yards
Davante Adams over/under 75.5
Allen Lazard over/under 38.5
Robert Tonyan over/under 33.5
Aaron Jones over/under 23.5
Receiving yards
Davante Adams over/under 75.5
Allen Lazard over/under 38.5
Robert Tonyan over/under 33.5
Aaron Jones over/under 23.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over/under 23.5
PICK: Green Bay -6.5
A lot will be made about the Packers offense vs. the Rams defense in this one, and deservedly so. The Packers have four All-Pros, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers and receiver Davante Adams, on that side of the ball. Rodgers played like the 2020 NFL MVP, throwing for 4,300 yards with an impressive 48-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Adams caught 18 of those touchdowns. And on the opposite sideline, the Rams feature unanimous All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who enters the game injured with torn rib cartilage, and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who likely will follow Adams. Ramsey’s coverage stats against top receivers are extremely impressive.
But when you get two teams equally as dominant, more or less, it’s likely going to average out. It could happen in this weekend’s Divisional Round, and that would benefit the Packers.
The Rams were 22nd in the league in points scored per game (23.3) and 11th in yards behind a top-10 rushing attack. Jared Goff, just weeks removed from thumb surgery, will make the start after playing the final three quarters against the Seahawks last week. Goff, however, may be without leading receiver Cooper Kupp, who is questionable after suffering a knee injury against the Seahawks. The Packers meanwhile were ninth in the league in yards allowed this season and have the ability to get after the passer with Pro Bowl defensive end Za’Darius Smith and edge rusher Preston Smith. If Green Bay gets ahead with its high-powered offense, it may be tough for LA to catch up with its inconsistent offense.
The Packers have won each of their last two Divisional Round Games (2019, 2016) and we’re thinking they’ll make it three this weekend.
