We’re less than two days away from the 2021 NFL Draft and rumors are flying from every direction.
Navigating through the noise is no easy task, but it’s paramount to focus on your game plan and go with your gut. Things get very slippery once you start to deviate.
The New England Patriots are one of the toughest teams to predict in this year’s draft. There has been a ton of movement on Bill Belichick and Co. taking a defensive player with their first pick. FOX Bet opened its Patriots market at Offense -350 / Defense +275 in early April, but the market now sits at Offense -180 / Defense +140.
It feels like most people are talking about the Patriots trading up to take a quarterback, but the betting market tells an entirely different story. Mounds of money has shown for New England to select a defensive player first.
Rather than drive myself nuts trying to figure out what the mysterious Belichick will do, I put together a small portfolio of bets for this year’s NFL Draft. They are all “draft position” wagers based on where players will be selected. Let’s go to work.
Kyle Pitts Under 5.5 -185 (FOX Bet)
Kyle Pitts first non-QB drafted -150 (FOX Bet)
I’m so bullish on Pitts going third or fourth, it hurts. One NFL executive told me he would be absolutely stunned if Pitts fell past the Atlanta Falcons at four. There’s also a growing paranoia in the Atlanta draft room because they’re nervous about Pitts not being available when they’re on the clock. Almost everything you read states that the San Francisco 49ers are doing to draft a quarterback, but imagine an offense with Pitts, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Sheesh. I love Pitts going No. 4 overall, but these bets will cash even if he goes No. 5.
Jaycee Horn Under 12.5 -105 (FOX Bet)
If Horn played at Alabama, this prop would probably be 9.5 or so. Shame on him for going to South Carolina! I’ve got Horn going higher than Patrick Surtain II (O/U 10.5), but both cornerbacks should be off the board by the twelfth pick. The Dallas Cowboys are desperate for secondary help at No. 10 as are the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 12. Scouts absolutely love Horn’s coverage skills and his stock is rising.
Jaylen Waddle Under 10.5 -118 (FanDuel)
Waddle is a serious target for the Miami Dolphins at No. 6 and the Carolina Panthers at No. 8. Both teams need another weapon for their young quarterbacks. The implementation of lightning-fast “joystick” players has become essential in today’s NFL offense and nobody fits that role better than Waddle. This betting number has slowly trickled down from 11.5 o-130 as reports have surfaced from other teams being interested in Waddle via trade.
Justin Fields Over 7.5 +120 (DraftKings)
I don’t love that this number has bloated from 4.5 to 7.5, but I’ve got Fields dropping out of the top eight picks. Everybody is expecting this assembly line of quarterbacks to go in the first four or five selections and I’m just not buying it. After Mac Jones likely goes third, there should be a group of playmakers that go from No. 4 to No. 8. None of those teams need a quarterback, so Fields and Trey Lance could certainly fall. A trade could ruin this bet, but I’m not scared. I’ve got Fields going No. 8 or No. 9.
Pitts U5.5 -185
Pitts first non-QB -150
Horn U12.5 -105
Waddle U10.5 -118
Fields O7.5 +120
RECORD: (31-25, +4.3)