A jolt of optimism has been zapped into the New England Patriots’ season win total.
One month before the 2021 NFL Draft, DraftKings sportsbook was the first American shop to hang a number on the Pats win total. The market opened at O/U nine regular season wins with -135 juice to the “under.” So you would’ve had to lay $135 to win $100 on “under” nine wins. “Over” bets were plus-money at the time.
Ever since New England drafted quarterback Mac Jones with the 15th pick last Thursday, respected money has poured into the market on the “over.” Some books are now offering O/U 9.5 wins and the remaining 9s are juiced to the “over.”
New England Patriots win totals:
FOX Bet: O/U 9.5 u-145
BetMGM: O/U 9.5 u-115
William Hill: O/U 9 o-150
SugarHouse: O/U 9 o-135
DraftKings: O/U 9 o-130
PointsBet: O/U 9 o-130
So it’s noticeably more expensive to bet on New England since the quarterback of the future fell directly into Bill Belichick’s lap. The running joke around the NESN newsroom was that Belichick would trade down and draft a safety or something like that, and boy was everybody wrong.
“The Patriots should move on from Cam Newton as soon as possible,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “That ship has almost sailed and you know what you’re going to get (with Cam). Belichick will realize that the kid gives his team a better chance to thrive on third and short. That’s how you win in the NFL — with a quarterback that makes the right decisions and the accurate throws.”
Belichick only has started a rookie quarterback once since taking over in Foxboro, and it wasn’t exactly by design. Jacoby Brissett started in a pinch back in 2016 when Tom Brady was serving a four-game suspension and backup Jimmy Garoppolo was injured.
But it’s about so much more than the quarterback. Belichick spent two straight months scheming and plotting his free agency spending spree. New England decidedly is better after bolstering the offensive and defensive lines and adding big targets like Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.
“The Patriots made some serious upgrades,” PointsBet Sportsbook senior sports analyst Andrew Mannino told NESN six weeks ago. “They’re spending a lot of money, but they’re also addressing needs and getting quality players into that room. These are calculated decisions and smart roster fits. You have to believe Belichick knows what he’s doing.”
If you believe in Belichick in a bounceback spot, now is the time to strike. And please shop around for the best possible price. There’s absolutely no reason to bet “over” 9.5 when “over” nine is readily available.
Patriots Over 9 wins (-130)
RECORD: (36-27, +7.2)