Tom Brady Odds: Ready To Pay ‘Brady Tax’ When Betting QB’s Player Props?

Markets are live for Brady's passing yards, touchdowns and MVP


June 23, 2021

Bookmakers will respect Tom Brady until the day he retires.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback — it’s still weird to write that — threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns last season at the age of 43. And you better believe that Brady’s player props are still relatively high for the upcoming season.

Since sportsbooks are in the business of making money, so you’re never going to get great true “value” betting on Tom Brady. His prices will always be shaded higher because of his success and reputation.

“He is what Michael Jordan was to basketball,” longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan told NESN. “It doesn’t matter what the line is. Some guys that just defy logic and attract action. We used to shade the lines and call it the Brady Tax. The lines have to be inflated.”

Here are four Tom Brady props worth entertaining this fall:

O/U 4,000.5 passing yards (DraftKings)
Brady has surpassed this number in four straight seasons and nine of the last 10. Assuming he stays healthy, he’ll have a great chance to crack 4,000 passing yards again. Brady threw the ball over 600 times last season in Bruce Arians’ offense. They did a tremendous job of using the short passing attack as an extension of the running game. If Brady plays 16 games (and misses the season finale for rest), he’ll need 250 yards per game. “Over” 4,000.5 is the only way to look.

O/U 33.5 passing touchdowns (PointsBet)
I’m actually surprised the number is this low. Other American sportsbooks have 35.5 and 36.5 passing touchdowns for the seven-time Super Bowl champ. Always be shopping. A deeper dive into Brady’s recent history shows this prop is no sure thing. Sure, he threw for 40 touchdowns in 2020, but he went for 24, 29, 32 and 28 in the four previous seasons. I definitely put more weight into his touchdown number in Tampa because they throw the ball more, but I’m really torn here.

16-to-1 to win NFL Most Valuable Player (BetMGM)
I want a bigger payout number, plain and simple. Thing is, most bookmakers are reluctant to give you anything north of 15-to-1 because there’s no reason to deal a great number on a player that people will bet regardless. Other shops are even lower at around 10 or 12-to-1. I would argue Brady’s true MVP price should be 20-to-1 in a league with Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson. Brady and the Bucs might dominate, but I’ll pass on him winning MVP.

5-to-1 Buccaneers to have best record in NFL (William Hill)
This is probably my favorite prop of them all. I spoke with multiple bookmakers who said Tampa Bay will be favored in every single regular-season game. And with Drew Brees and Julio Jones out of the way in the NFC South, the Buccaneers could really run away with the division title. The Super Bowl champs bring almost every starter back and 13-4 or 14-3 is certainly attainable.

Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images

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