You may have heard that Phil Mickelson won the PGA Championship four weeks ago.
The 50-year-old sweet swinging lefty held off Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen to culminate a powerful weekend of golf at the Ocean Course on Kiawah Island. Mickelson opened as high as 300-to-1 to win the event, which implies that oddsmakers gave him less than a one percent chance to be victorious.
A few bettors weren’t phased by those odds and decided to fire wagers on Mickelson anyway. Patrick Everson from Covers reported a $1,000 wager on Mickelson at DraftKings that paid out just over $300,000.
Can you imagine?
Fast forward to the 2021 U.S. Open this weekend at Torrey Pines and take one guess who the trendiest golfer to bet is. You already know the answer — Phil Mickelson. I spoke with multiple Las Vegas bookmakers who told me that Mickelson is top-five in ticket count and the number one worry as far as liability is concerned.
And forget those triple-digit odds you got last month. The highest future price I saw on Mickelson this weekend was 80-to-1. That’s a substantial dip from the 300-to-1 ceiling at the PGA Championship.
“We’re still cooked if he wins on Sunday,” one of the bookmakers said via text.
There’s clearly more liability this weekend because more bets have been placed on Mickelson. Combine that mounting liability with the perception that Lefty is a contender again and oddsmakers have to react. So they slash Mickelson’s odds in the future markets.
Mickelson’s odds to win U.S. Open
50-to-1 William Hill
59-to-1 Circa Sports
60-to-1 Westgate SuperBook
All this conversation about Mickelson winning again has me running the other way. I’m wired to fade out the noise and search for betting value on the other end of the equation.
While everybody is buying up Mickelson stock, I’m ready to short.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving you plus-money (+110) on Phil Mickelson to miss the cut. So he’s actually a betting favorite (-130) to make it. That is such a numerical narrative shift from a month ago when Lefty was close to the -200 range to miss. Hey now.
Given the aforementioned odds shift — and the fact that Mickelson has missed the cut in three of his last six tournaments — I’ll take my chances with reality against perception.
Phil Mickelson to miss the cut (+110)
RECORD: (41-38, -1.0)