U.S. Open Power Rankings: 14 Players Best Positioned To Win At Torrey Pines

Who can capture the national championship?


June 16, 2021

There figures to be no shortage of firepower atop any U.S. Open power rankings, bet slips or DFS lineups this week.

The USGA major typically is a brutal test of golf, and this week’s U.S. Open at Torrey Pines South should be no different. The last 10 U.S. Opens all have been won by players who ranked in the top 30 of the world golf rankings entering that week. Six of those winners ranked in the top 10 or better before hoisting the trophy.

So, it should come as no surprise that our U.S. Open power rankings feature a lot of the heavy favorites.

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

14. Justin Rose (+4700): A bit of a longer shot here, no doubt, and he has been helped recently by a hot putter. However, he has dialed it up at the majors, finishing eighth at the PGA and seventh at the Masters. It’s a little feast or famine at the U.S. Open, where he has five top-12 finishes, including a win in 2013 but also four missed cuts.

13. Shane Lowry (+3800): Lowry finished sixth at Memorial and fourth at the PGA, two tournaments with loaded fields on tough courses. That came on the heels of a 21st-place finish at the Masters and an eighth at the Players. Just a solid option who has a major title under his belt.

12. Paul Casey (+4700): A big-time model guy this week, he’s fantastic with the long iron and is longer off the tee than most realize. He was a ball-striking machine en route to a fourth-place finish at Kiawah.

11. Tony Finau (+2400): Finau has finished in the top 10 in each of his last four majors, and he’s one of the longest hitters on Tour. He obviously hasn’t broken through, but he’s another strong DFS play.

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10. Jordan Spieth (+2300): Spieth is back to being in the contender conversation, even on courses for which he isn’t a great fit. Torrey Pines probably belongs in that category, for someone like Spieth has a tendency to spray it off the tee. This is also worth monitoring this week.

9. Patrick Cantlay (+2500): He emerged from the wilderness with a strong showing at the PGA, and the stat model loves him this week for his tee-to-green play, bogey avoidance and long-iron play that should benefit him on the long par 4s.

8. Rory McIlroy (+1900): He hasn’t been very good lately, even with the win at Wells Fargo. The approach game is back, but it’s too dicey off the tee to make a legitimate case for him to win. That being said, we’re too afraid to leave him off the list.

7. Patrick Reed (+2900): He won at Torrey Pines in January, and he’s a big-game player. He’s been very good on Poa, and his around-the-green game could help neutralize some disadvantages he might face if he finds himself in the deep rough.

6. Collin Morikawa (+2000): He’s not a great putter, and he’s been especially bad on Poa. However, recent form is tough to deny, finishing no worse than 14th in his last four starts while gaining 9.3 strokes tee-to-green and 6.7 on approach in his last five tournaments.

5. Dustin Johnson (+1700): DJ really hasn’t been very good lately. He missed the cut at the Masters and the PGA. That being said, he did gain nine strokes overall last week in a 10th-place finish at the Palmetto Championship in an admittedly weak field. If there’s anyone who can heat up in an instant, it’s probably him.

4. Xander Schauffele (+1700): He’s got top-10 finishes in seven of his last 13 majors, and he’s never finished worse than sixth (!) at the U.S. Open. While it hasn’t been worth much at the Farmers so far in his career, Schauffele is a local kid who has played Torrey Pines hundreds of times.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1700): If the course plays the way we’re expecting, DeChambeau probably should be the favorite. He already said this week he’s going to use the same playbook that won him last year’s U.S. Open. If everyone’s gonna be stuck in the thick rough all week, no one can muscle the ball out like big ol’ Bryson.

2. Brooks Koepka (+1800): Shame on us for leaving Koepka off the PGA Championship power rankings. The knee thing at the Masters was too much to ignore, and then he went and finished second at Kiawah. The two-time U.S. Open champion is more or less a must-start, must-bet option at majors again.

1. Jon Rahm (+950): We’re going chalk with the No. 1 pick, but Rahm checks all the boxes. He’s long — and accurate — off the tee. Fantastic ball striker, too. He’s in great form, with eight top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts, which doesn’t include his COVID-19 withdraw as the six-shot, 54-hole leader at the Memorial. He also has played well at Torrey Pines. The only drawback? He’s never won a major, but this seems as good of a week as any to finally break through.

(Strokes gained data via Fantasy National Golf)

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