Hot Dog Odds: Will Joey ‘Jaws’ Chestnut Put Down 74 At Coney Island?

Chestnut's O/U is 73.5 hot dogs


July 3, 2021

Joey Chestnut has a 95 percent chance to win the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

That’s what Chestnut’s -2000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook imply in terms of probability. There’s absolutely no reason to lay $2,000 to win $100, but that’s the price of admission to the Chestnut party.

In fact, DraftKings is so high on Chestnut that they’re offering Chestnut against “The Field,” which you can take at 10-to-1. So a $100 bet on “The Field” pays $1,000 if anybody else wins.

“Joey Chestnut is not going to lose,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “We don’t even take bets on it because it’s not sanctioned by Nevada Gaming. We would be much higher than -2000, though. The true line is probably Chestnut -4000. Barring him collapsing on the stage, he’s going to win.”

The more-popular way to bet on Chestnut is via the Over/Under for total hot dogs eaten. Currently, the line is set at O/U 73.5 with juice to the “Over.” The “Over” is -230, while the “Under” comes back at +165. And even though Chestnut smashed the world record with 75 dogs in 2020, that total seems a little high.

Joey Chestnut’s hot dog count at Coney Island:
2020: 75
2019: 71
2018: 74
2017: 72
2016: 70
2015: 60
2014: 61
2013: 69
2012: 68
2011: 62
2010: 54
2009: 68
2008: 59
2007: 66

Chestnut definitely can eat 74 hot dogs, but the math is against him. And I’m not going to lay $230 to win $100 on a number he’s reached only twice in the last 14 years. It’s almost like you’re paying a “Chestnut Tax” because of his recent performances and the respect that bettors pay him.

Because I’m a sicko, I checked and double checked the weekend forecast at Coney Island. It’s raining almost all day and night Saturday, which sets up a muggy and humid Sunday for the day of the contest. Those sweaty conditions aren’t exactly ideal for Chestnut to pound down 74 dogs.

Some people are riding the narrative that Chestnut wants to break his own record and eat close to 80 dogs. That’s certainly in the realm of possibility, but I believe it’s time to short “Joey Jaws.” He’s going to win the contest, but does he really need to eat 74?

The answer is no.

Given the inflated number and the huge disparity between Chestnut and his peers, I’m going “Under” 73.5 at plus-money. I love that +165 price and believe Chestnut will coast to another hot dog eating championship with around 70.

Joey Chestnut “Under” 73.5 dogs +165

RECORD: (42-40, -2.0)

Thumbnail photo via Competitors in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest eat as many hot dogs as possible in ten minutes on Saturday, April 13, 2019, in Cape Coral. Fnp 0413 Ai Nathans006

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