Mac Jones Odds: Assessing Rookie QB’s Market For Offensive ROY

Jones is 12-to-1 to win the award at BetMGM


July 28, 2021

Mac Jones might start at quarterback for the New England Patriots sooner than you think.

I’ve only lived in New England for seven months — so I’m still learning how to decipher Bill Belichick speak — but I can’t get over The Hoodie’s comment Wednesday about the Pats quarterback battle being a “clean slate” between Jones and incumbent Cam Newton.

Remember, Belichick was quick to say that Newton was QB1 a day after New England selected the Alabama quarterback with the No. 15 pick in April’s NFL Draft.


And while the guessing game continues, it’s worth pointing out that FanDuel Sportsbook pulled down its betting market on the Patriots’ Week 1 starter. Newton was as high as a -250 favorite (71 percent implied probability) in early June to be behind center Week 1, but that bet is now off the board.

All this Mac Jones hype has me thinking about the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market.

Jones has the fifth-best odds at most American sportsbooks behind Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance.

A $100 bet on Jones wins $900 at William Hill and $1,200 at BetMGM. Always be shopping.

Mac Jones Offensive ROY betting odds:
+900 William Hill ($100 wins $900)
+1000 DraftKings
+1100 PointsBet
+1100 SugarHouse
+1200 BetMGM ($100 wins $1,200)

Respected football analysts are starting to see the writing on the wall for Newton, too.

“This offense for New England is going to be one, run-oriented, and then two, great on third down, efficiency on third down. That will be a Mac Jones strength,” analyst Dan Orlovsky said on ESPN’s “Get Up” television program.

“Now, I do see them taking a package for Cam Newton and having him be a big part of their offense,” Orlovsky continued. “Situational stuff, third downs they can utilize quarterback runs, 11-on-11 football, red zone 11-on-11 football. Also, with the ability that he can still throw the ball. But Mac Jones will be their starting quarterback.”

How’s that for a bold statement?

The best bettors in the world are able to anticipate the future and beat the betting market. I spoke to a couple industry experts that believe Jones’ consensus OROY odds could shorten from +1100 to +700 or so should the rookie win the job in training camp.

Trevor Lawrence will rightfully remain the betting favorite to win the award and he’ll put up numbers, but who’s to say that Jones wouldn’t be coming into a better situation with a stronger offensive line, two very solid tight ends and a system that works well with his skills.

If you think Jones can win the starting job and make some noise in his rookie campaign, a wager at 11-to-1 right now could easily put you in a profitable situation no matter what.

Thumbnail photo via Eric Adler/New England Patriots

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