College Football Odds: Eyeing ‘Under’ In Nebraska-Illinois Season Opener
The total is O/U 55 between the Huskers and Illini
Finally, the college football season is here.
Five FBS games will be played this Saturday and sports bettors are loading up their betting accounts across the country. I’m typically not somebody that circles a lot of games on a college football card, so if you’re looking for a play on every game this weekend, you’ve come to the wrong place.
I’ve always believed that handicapping is about isolating the games you really, really like and sticking with those.
Off we go!
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Illinois Fighting Illini open up the season Saturday in beautiful Champaign, Ill. at 1 pm ET. Nebraska opened as a 7.5-point road favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 56.5.
DraftKings Sportsbook is currently dealing the Huskers -7 and O/U 55 (-110).
One professional bettor I spoke with made a position on the Illini +7.5 and he’s bullish that they can hang around until the very end. I wouldn’t necessarily fight him on that angle, I’m just a little nervous about the Illini being too trendy. Over 70 percent of betting tickets are on Illinois at multiple sportsbooks and that makes me squeamish.
I hate being on the trendy underdog and that’s exactly what Bret Bielema’s team is shaping up to be at this point in time. There were also a couple 6.5-point spreads that popped up late Wednesday night and those numbers were immediately bet back to -7. So there was respected resistance on Nebraska once the line crossed through the most key number in football.
The point total has my full attention and I’m digging “Under” 55. This might sound insane to you given the two teams combined to score 64, 80 and 89 points in the last three meetings. But I like to leave the past in the past and worry about the present and future.
The Cornhuskers return 10 defensive starters on a unit that was really outmatched early in the season. They came together and progressed nicely down the stretch and they’ll be much better equipped to handle an Illinois offense that doesn’t have any true home-run hitters down the field.
Nebraska will play a ton of nickel this season, but the defensive line — anchored by Ben Stille (6’5″ 295) and Damion Daniels (6’3″ 335) — will surprise some people.
On the flip side, Illinois’ defense left a lot to be desired last season and Bielema has made it a priority down I-57 to shore up that side of the ball. Former head coach Lovie Smith’s players lacked effort and urgency in Smith’s lame duck season and Illinois gave up 35 points per game. Toughness in the trenches has been a theme echoed all summer long in camp.
Look for the Illini to bring pressure at Huskers QB Adrian Martinez, too.
Bielema clubs historically love to run the rock and control the clock while putting the quarterback in a position to succeed. Brandon Peters is okay, but far from special and he’s not the type of cat to force the issue.
I’ve got this final score in the 27-21 range due to two defenses that have a whole lot to prove coming off disappointing 2020 campaigns.
Nebraska-Illinois Under 55 (-110)
RECORD: (46-44, -2.2)
