Fantasy Football 2021: 10 Players To Avoid With First-Round Pick
You might want to look elsewhere in Round 1
In fantasy football, knowing who not to draft is as important as knowing who to draft.
And fumbling your first-round pick? Well, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Fortunately, after evaluating the fantasy football landscape ahead of the 2021 NFL season, we’re here to help by offering some names you should avoid in Round 1.
Now, keep in mind: These aren’t hard-and-fast rules. Fantasy football leagues come in all shapes and sizes — PPR vs. non-PPR, 10-team vs. 12-team, etc. — so we’re speaking in general terms, with an eye toward scoring systems that reward receptions (whether it be a point or half-point). Even then, there might be some weird scenario where you find yourself drafting one of these players.
That said, this should give you an indication as to who’s being overvalued, specifically with regards to early-round talent. And if a toss-up situation arises, you probably should, in most cases, pick the other guy you’re considering.
So, without further ado, here’s who we’re thinking twice (or even thrice) about drafting in the first round, all things considered.
1. Any quarterback
A quarterback-driven NFL does not mean the same holds true in fantasy football, where running backs and wide receivers hold most of the early-round appeal. You might be tempted to reach for Patrick Mahomes, thinking you’re slick by zigging while everyone else zags, but you’ll regret it later when your stash of RBs and/or WRs looks underwhelming and the point advantage you actually gained at QB by going off the board falls short of your expectations.
2. Any tight end besides Travis Kelce
Kelce is such a valuable fantasy commodity because he’s a TE who essentially posts WR1 numbers. His track record of consistency and his continued status as a top weapon within arguably the NFL’s most high-powered offense are unmatched at the position. If you want to draft him in Round 1, go nuts. Just keep in mind you shouldn’t chase the competitive edge a strong TE provides by picking someone like George Kittle or Darren Waller as soon as Kelce comes off the board. They’re a notch below, with lower floors/ceilings, largely because they don’t have the Kansas City Chiefs’ elite quarterback play as support.
3. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Thomas is expected to miss the start of the season after undergoing ankle surgery in June. That alone should be enough to bump him from Round 1. But also consider how detrimental the injury could be to Thomas’ usually pristine route-running, the regression he showed while battling the ailment last season, the uncertainty hanging over the QB position in New Orleans after Drew Brees’ retirement and the possibility that the Saints deploy a run-oriented offense in 2021. Yeah, no thanks. Let someone else deal with that headache.
4. Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans
Just a reminder: The year is 2021. Jones is 32 and adjusting to a new offense after an injury-plagued 2020. He’s no longer a WR1, let alone someone you should think about drafting in the first round with the hopes of him morphing back into an All-Pro contributor. All good things must come to an end.
5. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
This is where format really matters. Because Henry is far more valuable in standard leagues, without PPR scoring, than he is in leagues that reward receptions. (Henry had just 19 catches for 114 yards last season and has just 76 receptions in his five-year career.) It’s worth considering his workload, too, as Henry carried the football 782 times the last two seasons, including the playoffs, which leads the NFL by a wide margin. Will his fantasy impact diminish, to some extent, especially if the touchdown numbers regress?
6. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Barkley had surgery to repair a torn ACL on Oct. 30. Perhaps he’ll return for Week 1, but the more likely scenario is he misses the start of the season and the Giants ease him back into action. That obviously is a blow to his fantasy value, which already is questionable given New York’s other deficiencies, most notably at quarterback and along the offensive line.
7. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s return should boost Elliott’s stock. Of course, the problem is Prescott, who’s coming back from a gruesome ankle injury, also is dealing with a shoulder issue this preseason. That alone shouldn’t scare you away from Zeke entirely. Just don’t reach for the name recognition if other, better options are available when you pick in Round 1. This might be a good point to pivot to WRs — with Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill in the first tier — or even eye Kelce, if he’s still available.
8. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Chubb certainly makes the most of his touches. But until he’s no longer sharing a backfield with Kareem Hunt, his ceiling is capped, especially in PPR formats. Hunt’s usage as a pass-catcher leaves little in the way of receptions for Chubb, a top-10 RB who should take a back seat to the top WRs on draft day.
9. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Just don’t love the track record here. It’s easy to become enamored with what Mixon should be, based on his role/usage and overall ability, but he’s coming off a 2020 season plagued by a foot injury and Cincinnati’s offensive line has been terrible. It really depends on your stomach for a boom-or-bust pick in Round 1.
10. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor emerged as a stud in his rookie season. Could be a sign of what’s to come. That said, the Colts just lost both their starting quarterback (Carson Wentz) and their All-Pro guard (Quenton Nelson) for a good chunk of time thanks to a pair of foot injuries. It might have a trickle-down effect, impacting Indianapolis’ offensive playmakers, including Taylor, from a fantasy perspective.
