New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom is unlikely to win the National League MVP.
deGrom was the odds-on favorite at most American sportsbooks during the Major League Baseball All-Star break, but forearm and elbow injuries have kept him sidelined ever since. And according to MLB.com Mets beat writer Anthony DiComo, deGrom won’t see action until at least September.
The injury to deGrom — combined with the uncertainty of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder — has bookmakers in quite the betting pickle. The NL MVP market was priced like a two-horse race between the aforementioned superstars, but their injuries have created a domino rally.
Sportsbooks have severely shortened their betting odds on Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy, Muncy’s new Dodger teammate Trea Turner and Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. All three players were priced at 30-to-1 or higher a few weeks ago.
Good luck finding anything close to those odds right now.
“We don’t take in-season MVP bets for reasons like this,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “It’s preseason only for us. Injuries are a killer because you start getting popped on the other guys at big prices. When a guy like Mike Trout goes down, you get blasted with (Shohei) Ohtani and Vlad (Guerrero) Jr. money. It’s a domino rally and you’ve got to be quick to adjust.
“Some of the American shops had Trea Turner at 50-to-1 and Max Muncy at 100-to-1 in late May. Those guys weren’t even in the MVP conversation, but now you’re nervous if you’re liable. Those payouts on 50 and 100 dollar bets add up quickly at 50 and 100-to-1 odds.”
The guessing game continues for bettors and bookmakers when it comes to Tatis Jr.’s status. Padres manager Jayce Tingler told reporters that the new MVP frontrunner plans to return to action, but season-ending shoulder surgery is “on the table” if there’s not enough improvement in the next 10 days.
As somebody holding a Tatis Jr. MVP ticket, I’m a nervous wreck.
Most shops are still dealing Tatis Jr. as a short favorite, but those odds would be turned upside down once again if he has to go under the knife.
FanDuel Sportsbook NL MVP odds – Aug. 2:
Fernando Tatis Jr. -125 ($125 wins $100)
Trea Turner +350 ($100 wins $350)
Max Muncy +400
Freddie Freeman +750
Jacob deGrom +3000
Manny Machado +6000
Bryce Harper +6000
Nick Castellanos +7000
See anything you like?