Patriots Odds: How Sharp New England Money Affected Washington’s Total
Washington's team total moved from 19.5 to 18 on Thursday
The betting lines for Thursday’s preseason game between the New England Patriots and Washington Football Team have been on the move since the morning.
Washington was a two-point favorite when the sun came up and that number held until ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted that Cam Newton and Mac Jones were expected to play. There were rumblings all week about both quarterbacks getting some run in the preseason opener, but the betting market doesn’t move until the money shows.
Over the ensuing two hours, Patriots money poured into sportsbooks around the country. New England quickly morphed from a two-point pup to a one-point favorite almost everywhere. Three points might not sound like a big line move, but that’s a drastic shift over a very short period of time.
And the point spread wasn’t the only thing that changed.
NESN football analyst Matt Chatham and I discussed playing the “Under” on Washington’s team total for points on Wednesday evening. DraftKings Sportsbook was offering O/U 19.5 points with -110 each way at the time. Thing is, when the favorite flips, the team totals have to be recalibrated as well.
And while the game total didn’t budge off 37 on Thursday morning, oddsmakers had to raise New England’s team total and shorten Washington’s. (A sportsbook can’t deal a team with a higher point total when that team is no longer favored to win).
Current WFT team totals vs. Patriots
DraftKings Under 18.5 (-130)
PointsBet Under 18 (-110)
WynnBET Under 18 (-110)
BetMGM Under 17.5 (-105)
“We’re coming off a season where the defense was nowhere near what the expectations were,” Chatham said on Wednesday. “The Patriots’ defense has been a major focus of the organization. They want to massively improve that group. The last thing they want to do is allow a bunch of points the first time they take the field.”
Time will tell if Chatham and I made the right call, but we did half the battle getting the best possible number. And I refuse to sit here and tell you that going “Under” 17.5 or 18 points for Washington is a great bet when 19.5 was readily available on Wednesday.
It’s just another example of how preseason betting is a whirlwind and these lines tend to move quickly when professional bettors react to late-breaking information.
Now watch Washington score exactly 19 points.
